{"generated_at":"2026-10-29 04:37 UTC","engine_version":"0.4.0","repo":"https://github.com/f1devbin/Crypto-Research-Labs","site":"https://f1devbin.github.io/Crypto-Research-Labs/","regime":[{"id":"funding_carry","label":"BTC funding carry, yield on capital (30 d, annualised, after costs)","metric":"funding_carry","format":"{:+.1%}","value":0.025773,"band":"low","error":null,"bands":{"negative":[null,0.0],"low":[0.0,0.04],"moderate":[0.04,0.08],"attractive":[0.08,null]},"explain":"What you would earn per year by holding BTC and shorting the same amount of BTC futures, so the price itself does not matter. 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supply growth (30 d)","metric":"stablecoin_growth","format":"{:+.2%}","value":-0.02203,"band":"contracting","error":null,"bands":{"contracting":[null,0.0],"flat":[0.0,0.02],"expanding":[0.02,null]},"explain":"How fast the supply of dollar-pegged coins (USDT, USDC) is growing. 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Fear & Greed index","metric":"fear_greed","format":"{:.0f}","value":51.0,"band":"neutral","error":null,"bands":{"extreme_fear":[null,20],"fear":[20,45],"neutral":[45,55],"greed":[55,75],"extreme_greed":[75,null]},"explain":"A 0-100 mood score built from price moves, volatility and social media. Low = fear, high = 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vs its 200-day average","metric":"price_vs_sma","format":"{:+.1%}","value":0.112605,"band":"above","error":null,"bands":{"below":[null,0.0],"above":[0.0,null]},"explain":"How far the price is above (+) or below (-) its average over the last 200 days. Above usually means a long-term 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net flow to exchanges (7 days)","metric":"feature","format":"{:+,.0f} BTC","value":-5027.472839,"band":"withdrawals","error":null,"bands":{"withdrawals":[null,0],"deposits":[0,null]},"explain":"Bitcoin moved onto exchanges minus bitcoin moved off them over the last 7 days. 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rule today: BTC in or out of the market","metric":"rule_state","format":"{:.0f}","value":1.0,"band":"rule_in","error":null,"bands":{"rule_out":[null,0.5],"rule_in":[0.5,null]},"explain":"The only rule that has passed its test. It stays out of Bitcoin while net deposits to exchanges are in their top 20% of the past year. Not a signal to trade: it is still being verified 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breadth (coins above their 200-day average)","metric":"breadth","format":"{:.0%}","value":0.538462,"band":"mixed","error":null,"bands":{"weak":[null,0.3],"mixed":[0.3,0.7],"strong":[0.7,null]},"explain":"Share of the 13 coins whose price is above their own 200-day average. High means most of the market is in an uptrend; low means most coins are falling.","note":"","history":{"d":["2025-10-29","2025-10-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-01","2025-11-02","2025-11-03","2025-11-04","2025-11-05","2025-11-06","2025-11-07","2025-11-08","2025-11-09","2025-11-10","2025-11-11","2025-11-12","2025-11-13","2025-11-14","2025-11-15","2025-11-16","2025-11-17","2025-11-18","2025-11-19","2025-11-20","2025-11-21","2025-11-22","2025-11-23","2025-11-24","2025-11-25","2025-11-26","2025-11-27","2025-11-28","2025-11-29","2025-11-30","2025-12-01","2025-12-02","2025-12-03","2025-12-04","2025-12-05","2025-12-06","2025-12-07","2025-12-08","2025-12-09","2025-12-10","2025-12-11","2025-12-12","2025-12-13","2025-12-14","2025-12-15","2025-12-16","2025-12-17","2025-12-18","2025-12-19","2025-12-20","2025-12-21","2025-12-22","2025-12-23","2025-12-24","2025-12-25","2025-12-26","2025-12-27","2025-12-28","2025-12-29","2025-12-30","2025-12-31","2026-01-01","2026-01-02","2026-01-03","2026-01-04","2026-01-05","2026-01-06","2026-01-07","2026-01-08","2026-01-09","2026-01-10","2026-01-11","2026-01-12","2026-01-13","2026-01-14","2026-01-15","2026-01-16","2026-01-17","2026-01-18","2026-01-19","2026-01-20","2026-01-21","2026-01-22","2026-01-23","2026-01-24","2026-01-25","2026-01-26","2026-01-27","2026-01-28","2026-01-29","2026-01-30","2026-01-31","2026-02-01","2026-02-02","2026-02-03","2026-02-04","2026-02-05","2026-02-06","2026-02-07","2026-02-08","2026-02-09","2026-02-10","2026-02-11","2026-02-12","2026-02-13","2026-02-14","2026-02-15","2026-02-16","2026-02-17","2026-02-18","2026-02-19","2026-02-20","2026-02-21","2026-02-22","2026-02-23","2026-02-24","2026-02-25","2026-02-26","2026-02-27","2026-02-28","2026-03-01","2026-03-02","2026-03-03","2026-03-04","2026-03-05","2026-03-06","2026-03-07","2026-03-08","2026-03-09","2026-03-10","2026-03-11","2026-03-12","2026-03-13","2026-03-14","2026-03-15","2026-03-16","2026-03-17","2026-03-18","2026-03-19","2026-03-20","2026-03-21","2026-03-22","2026-03-23","2026-03-24","2026-03-25","2026-03-26","2026-03-27","2026-03-28","2026-03-29","2026-03-30","2026-03-31","2026-04-01","2026-04-02","2026-04-03","2026-04-04","2026-04-05","2026-04-06","2026-04-07","2026-04-08","2026-04-09","2026-04-10","2026-04-11","2026-04-12","2026-04-13","2026-04-14","2026-04-15","2026-04-16","2026-04-17","2026-04-18","2026-04-19","2026-04-20","2026-04-21","2026-04-22","2026-04-23","2026-04-24","2026-04-25","2026-04-26","2026-04-27","2026-04-28","2026-04-29","2026-04-30","2026-05-01","2026-05-02","2026-05-03","2026-05-04","2026-05-05","2026-05-06","2026-05-07","2026-05-08","2026-05-09","2026-05-10","2026-05-11","2026-05-12","2026-05-13","2026-05-14","2026-05-15","2026-05-16","2026-05-17","2026-05-18","2026-05-19","2026-05-20","2026-05-21","2026-05-22","2026-05-23","2026-05-24","2026-05-25","2026-05-26","2026-05-27","2026-05-28","2026-05-29","2026-05-30","2026-05-31","2026-06-01","2026-06-02","2026-06-03","2026-06-04","2026-06-05","2026-06-06","2026-06-07","2026-06-08","2026-06-09","2026-06-10","2026-06-11","2026-06-12","2026-06-13","2026-06-14","2026-06-15","2026-06-16","2026-06-17","2026-06-18","2026-06-19","2026-06-20","2026-06-21","2026-06-22","2026-06-23","2026-06-24","2026-06-25","2026-06-26","2026-06-27","2026-06-28","2026-06-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-01","2026-07-02","2026-07-03","2026-07-04","2026-07-05","2026-07-06","2026-07-07","2026-07-08","2026-07-09","2026-07-10","2026-07-11","2026-07-12","2026-07-13","2026-07-14","2026-07-15","2026-07-16","2026-07-17","2026-07-18","2026-07-19","2026-07-20","2026-07-21","2026-07-22","2026-07-23","2026-07-24","2026-07-25","2026-07-26","2026-07-27","2026-07-28","2026-07-29","2026-07-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-01","2026-08-02","2026-08-03","2026-08-04","2026-08-05","2026-08-06","2026-08-07","2026-08-08","2026-08-09","2026-08-10","2026-08-11","2026-08-12","2026-08-13","2026-08-14","2026-08-15","2026-08-16","2026-08-17","2026-08-18","2026-08-19","2026-08-20","2026-08-21","2026-08-22","2026-08-23","2026-08-24","2026-08-25","2026-08-26","2026-08-27","2026-08-28","2026-08-29","2026-08-30","2026-08-31","2026-09-01","2026-09-02","2026-09-03","2026-09-04","2026-09-05","2026-09-06","2026-09-07","2026-09-08","2026-09-09","2026-09-10","2026-09-11","2026-09-12","2026-09-13","2026-09-14","2026-09-15","2026-09-16","2026-09-17","2026-09-18","2026-09-19","2026-09-20","2026-09-21","2026-09-22","2026-09-23","2026-09-24","2026-09-25","2026-09-26","2026-09-27","2026-09-28","2026-09-29","2026-09-30","2026-10-01","2026-10-02","2026-10-03","2026-10-04","2026-10-05","2026-10-06","2026-10-07","2026-10-08","2026-10-09","2026-10-10","2026-10-11","2026-10-12","2026-10-13","2026-10-14","2026-10-15","2026-10-16","2026-10-17","2026-10-18","2026-10-19","2026-10-20","2026-10-21","2026-10-22","2026-10-23","2026-10-24","2026-10-25","2026-10-26","2026-10-27","2026-10-28"],"v":[0.384615,0.230769,0.307692,0.384615,0.307692,0.153846,0.076923,0.153846,0.076923,0.230769,0.153846,0.230769,0.230769,0.076923,0.076923,0.076923,0.076923,0.076923,0.076923,0.076923,0.076923,0.076923,0.076923,0.0,0.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(EVER) vs its 50-day average","metric":"price_vs_sma","format":"{:+.1%}","value":-0.246052,"band":"below","error":null,"bands":{"below":[null,0.0],"above":[0.0,null]},"explain":"How far EVER trades above (+) or below (-) its 50-day average on Gate.io. This is the H-018 rule: above means in the market, below means out.","note":"H-018 rule is out of the 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TA ensemble (RSI, MACD, EMA, momentum) predicts 1-4 h direction","status":"rejected","family":"intraday","rationale":"Original F1MEBOT strategy: ensemble of classical indicators on 1-minute candles, TP 0.8% / SL 0.4%.","rerunnable":false,"verdict":"FAIL","mark":"\u274c","summary":"Replay of 7,649 live signals (Jun-Sep 2026) on real prices: win rate 33.9% at 2:1 R:R, EV -0.019%/trade before fees; direction worse than random in all 12 TP/SL x timeout scenarios (-1.7..-3.8 sigma). Meta-labelling AUC 0.53.","run_at":null,"data_end":null,"source":"F1MEBOT (2026)","history":[{"date":"2026-09-30","verdict":"FAIL","source":"F1MEBOT (2026)"}],"spec":null,"rows":[],"curves":[],"test_after":null,"registered":null,"replicates":null,"progress":null},{"id":"H-002","title":"Inverted minute signals are profitable after fees","status":"rejected","family":"intraday","rationale":"If the ensemble is reliably wrong, the opposite trade should win.","rerunnable":false,"verdict":"FAIL","mark":"\u274c","summary":"Better than random by the same margin, but the best case is +0.024%/trade before fees vs 0.04% cheapest fee (futures maker); negative after fees everywhere.","run_at":null,"data_end":null,"source":"F1MEBOT (2026)","history":[{"date":"2026-09-30","verdict":"FAIL","source":"F1MEBOT (2026)"}],"spec":null,"rows":[],"curves":[],"test_after":null,"registered":null,"replicates":null,"progress":null},{"id":"H-003","title":"Best daily trend rule (chosen 2018-2021) beats buy-and-hold out of sample, spot","status":"weak","family":"trend","rationale":"Daily trend following trades a few times a month, so fees become a small fraction of the move. Eleven classic rules; selection strictly in-sample.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"WEAK","mark":"\u25d0","summary":"significant after Bonferroni (p < 0.0167) on 0/3 assets (need 2); beats buy-and-hold on 2/3","run_at":"2026-10-14T16:59:16Z","data_end":"2026-10-13","source":"engine","history":[{"date":"2026-09-23","verdict":"WEAK","source":"F1MEBOT 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Ported from F1MEBOT PREREG.md (H1, sha256 d04ffb63...).","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"WEAK","mark":"\u25d0","summary":"oos: wins 0/1 (need 1), beats buy-and-hold 1/1","run_at":"2026-10-14T16:59:23Z","data_end":"2026-10-13","source":"engine","history":[{"date":"2026-09-30","verdict":"WEAK","source":"F1MEBOT 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funding-rate carry (spot long + perp short) pays enough for the risk","status":"rejected","family":"carry","rationale":"Delta-neutral carry earns funding without market direction; the risk is exchange counterparty and basis.","rerunnable":false,"verdict":"FAIL","mark":"\u274c","summary":"Yield on capital (no leverage, half per leg): 2020 +8.6%, 2021 +15.3%, 2022 +2.1%, 2023 +3.9%, 2024 +6.0%, 2025 +2.6%, 2026 (9 mo) +1.1%; last 365 days ~ +1.5%. Not worth full capital on one exchange.","run_at":null,"data_end":null,"source":"F1MEBOT (2026)","history":[{"date":"2026-09-30","verdict":"FAIL","source":"F1MEBOT (2026)"}],"spec":null,"rows":[],"curves":[],"test_after":null,"registered":null,"replicates":null,"progress":null},{"id":"H-012","title":"Volatility targeting (30%/yr) beats buy-and-hold on BTC, ETH, SOL","status":"weak","family":"risk","rationale":"Scaling exposure to a constant volatility target cuts exposure in turbulent periods, when crypto drawdowns cluster. Man Group reports about +0.4 Sharpe for BTC with ex-ante 30% vol scaling (2012-2024), following Harvey et al. (2018) 'The impact of volatility targeting'. Spot, no leverage (position capped at 1). Source: https://www.man.com/insights/crypto-too-hot-to-handle","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"WEAK","mark":"\u25d0","summary":"oos: wins 0/3 (need 2), beats buy-and-hold 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targeting (30%/yr) beats buy-and-hold on 8 independent coins","status":"weak","family":"risk","rationale":"Confirmation of H-012 on coins not used to design it. Same rule, same fee; Sharpe must beat holding on most coins in the full history and since 2022.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"WEAK","mark":"\u25d0","summary":"full: wins 5/8 (need 6), beats buy-and-hold 5/8; recent: wins 8/8 (need 6), beats buy-and-hold 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time-series momentum: hold only after a positive 7-day return (BTC, ETH, SOL)","status":"weak","family":"trend","rationale":"Liu & Tsyvinski (2021, Review of Financial Studies, 'Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency') find strong short-horizon time-series momentum: a one-standard-deviation higher weekly BTC return predicts a 3.16% higher return next week. Their sample ends in 2018, so 2022+ is a clean out-of-sample test. Source: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w24877/w24877.pdf","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"WEAK","mark":"\u25d0","summary":"oos: wins 0/3 (need 2), beats buy-and-hold 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effect: BTC held only on Mondays (UTC) beats buy-and-hold","status":"rejected","family":"calendar","rationale":"Caporale & Plastun (2019, 'The day of the week effect in the cryptocurrency market') report significantly higher Bitcoin returns on Mondays in 2013-2017; Baur et al. also note a higher Monday return. Our 2018+ data is entirely after their sample. Test: Sharpe of a Monday-only position vs holding, permutation test. Source: https://quantpedia.com/the-day-of-the-week-effect-in-the-crypto-currency-market/","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"FAIL","mark":"\u274c","summary":"post_paper: wins 0/1 (need 1), beats buy-and-hold 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of the month: BTC held only on the last 2 and first 3 days of each month","status":"rejected","family":"calendar","rationale":"Month-end and month-start flows (salaries, fund rebalancing, DCA purchases) produce a turn-of-the-month effect in equities; several crypto studies and practitioner notes report a similar end-of-month pattern in Bitcoin. Test: Sharpe vs holding since 2018, permutation test. Source: https://valuelytica.substack.com/p/end-of-month-effect-in-bitcoin","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"FAIL","mark":"\u274c","summary":"since_2018: wins 0/1 (need 1), beats buy-and-hold 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regime filter: hold altcoins only while BTC is above its 200-day average","status":"rejected","family":"trend","rationale":"Altcoins move with high beta to Bitcoin and their worst drawdowns happen in BTC bear markets. Using BTC's long-term trend (a less noisy signal than each alt's own price, which failed in H-005) as the on/off switch should cut those drawdowns without missing alt rallies, which mostly happen in BTC bull phases.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"FAIL","mark":"\u274c","summary":"full: wins 1/8 (need 6), beats buy-and-hold 1/8; recent: wins 7/8 (need 6), beats buy-and-hold 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(EVER): SMA50 trend rule beats buy-and-hold since 2022","status":"weak","family":"trend","rationale":"Requested by F1DevBin. EVER fell about 99% from its 2022 listing price; a trend filter should have been out of the market for most of that decline. Gate.io spot data (EVER is not listed on Binance), Gate fee 0.2% per side. Caution: median turnover is only ~$12k/day, so any result is hard to trade in practice.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"WEAK","mark":"\u25d0","summary":"since_listing: wins 0/1 (need 1), beats buy-and-hold 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(EVER): hold only while BTC is above its 200-day average","status":"weak","family":"trend","rationale":"Requested by F1DevBin. Same idea as H-017 applied to EVER: small-cap coins depend on the overall crypto regime, which BTC's 200-day trend captures. Gate.io data, fee 0.2% per side; thin liquidity caveat as in H-018.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"WEAK","mark":"\u25d0","summary":"since_listing: wins 0/1 (need 1), beats buy-and-hold 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out of the market when 7-day net deposits to exchanges are in their top 20%","status":"passed","family":"flows","rationale":"Idea by F1DevBin: coins moved to exchanges before price moves carry information. Deposits usually precede selling, so heavy net inflow should precede weaker returns (CryptoQuant and others read large inflows as bearish). Data: Coin Metrics community exchange flows (free, full history since 2011 for BTC, 2015 for ETH); collected daily into datasets/exchange_flows.csv. Spec revised on 2026-10-14 before any test was run: the first version waited a year for data, until it turned out the full history is available.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"PASS","mark":"\u2705","summary":"oos: wins 1/1 (need 1), beats buy-and-hold 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out of the market when 7-day net deposits to exchanges are in their top 20%","status":"weak","family":"flows","rationale":"Same as H-020 for Ethereum, an independent asset with its own exchange flows. Alpha 0.025 each (Bonferroni for the pair). Spec revised on 2026-10-14 before any test was run (full history available).","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"WEAK","mark":"\u25d0","summary":"oos: wins 0/1 (need 1), beats buy-and-hold 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replication of H-020 on data collected after 2026-10-15","status":"registered","family":"flows","rationale":"H-020 passed on 2022+ data, but historical exchange-flow data can carry look-ahead bias: exchange addresses discovered later are labelled retroactively, so past flows look cleaner than they were in real time. This repeats the exact rule only on flows recorded day by day from 2026-10-15 on, as they were published. Tested after a year of such data.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":null,"mark":"","summary":"","run_at":null,"data_end":null,"source":null,"history":[],"spec":{"kind":"timing_rule","rule":{"type":"feature_vs_rolling_quantile","feature":"exnetflow_btc_7d","q":0.8,"long_when":"not_above","lookback":365,"min_periods":180,"lag":1},"mode":"long_flat","fee":0.001,"universe":["BTCUSDT"],"periods":[{"name":"forward","start":"2026-10-15"}],"significance":{"method":"circular_shift","n":2000,"alpha":0.05},"criterion":{"min_wins":{"forward":1},"require_significance":true}},"rows":[],"curves":[],"test_after":"2027-10-15","registered":"2026-10-14","replicates":"H-020","progress":{"done":14,"total":365,"share":0.0384,"date":"2027-10-15"}},{"id":"H-023","title":"Gram (GRAM, prev. Toncoin): SMA50 trend rule beats buy-and-hold since 2023","status":"weak","family":"trend","rationale":"Requested by F1DevBin. GRAM is Toncoin (TON) after its rename; Gate.io spot keeps the full daily history from March 2023 under GRAM_USDT. Same rule as H-018 (EVER) so the two coins can be compared: long while the close is above its 50-day average, flat otherwise. Gate fee 0.2% per side. Turnover is around $2M/day, so unlike EVER the result would be tradable in practice.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"WEAK","mark":"\u25d0","summary":"since_listing: wins 0/1 (need 1), beats buy-and-hold 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strength rotation: hold the 3 strongest coins (1- and 3-day), skip extreme one-day jumps, only while BTC is above its 200-day average","status":"rejected","family":"trend","rationale":"Proposed by ChatGPT (via F1DevBin), model C of its plan, adapted from hourly to daily data. Coins that outperform the others over 1 and 3 days (the 24 h / 72 h windows of the proposal) keep outperforming for a while; buying right after an extreme one-day jump catches the reversal instead, so those coins are skipped; and the whole thing only runs while the market as a whole (BTC) is in an uptrend. Ranking by return relative to BTC gives exactly the same order as ranking by raw return, so the proposal's models A and B are one test (H-025). Benchmark: an equal-weight basket of the same coins, rebalanced daily without fees. Hourly trading was not tested: with 0.1% fees per side a daily-held signal is the cheapest version of the idea, if this fails the hourly one is very unlikely to survive costs.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"FAIL","mark":"\u274c","summary":"since_2020: does not beat the equal-weight basket; since_2022: beats the equal-weight 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momentum rotation: hold the 3 strongest coins over 1 and 3 days","status":"rejected","family":"trend","rationale":"Proposed by ChatGPT (via F1DevBin), models A/B of its plan on daily data: the same ranking as H-024 without the overheat and market filters. Tested together with H-024 so the value of the filters can be seen. Benchmark: equal-weight basket of the same coins, rebalanced daily without fees.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"FAIL","mark":"\u274c","summary":"since_2020: does not beat the equal-weight basket; since_2022: does not beat the equal-weight 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reversal: hold the 3 coins that fell the most yesterday","status":"rejected","family":"other","rationale":"Proposed by ChatGPT (via F1DevBin) as its second experiment: after a sharp move relative to the other coins, part of it is given back over the next hours. Daily version (the proposal uses 1-6 hours). Known risk, also noted in the proposal: the effect may exist but be eaten by fees, since the basket changes almost every day.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"FAIL","mark":"\u274c","summary":"since_2020: does not beat the equal-weight basket; since_2022: does not beat the equal-weight 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daily model gives every coin's chance of rising above fees better than its base rate","status":"rejected","family":"forecast","rationale":"Idea by F1DevBin: an honest service could publish a daily buy/sell view with a confidence level for every coin and keep score in public. Rephrased as a forecast: every day, for every coin, the probability that the next day's return beats the round-trip cost. One logistic regression shared by all 13 coins. Inputs at the close of day D: log returns over 1, 3, 7 and 30 days, distance from the 50- and 200-day averages, 7- and 30-day volatility, Bitcoin's 1- and 7-day returns, and, lagged one day for publication delay, BTC funding (7-day mean), Fear & Greed, 30-day USDT+USDC supply growth and 7-day BTC net exchange flow. Every input is a rolling 365-day z-score of its own past (min. 180 days, clipped at \u00b15), so coins with very different volatility share one model. The model is refitted on the first day of every month on decisions whose outcome was already known (up to two days before), L2 = 1. Costs: 0.1 % per side on Binance, 0.4 % per side on Gate.io coins (0.2 % fee + 0.2 % slippage). It passes only if, pooled over all coins from 2022 on, its probabilities beat each coin's base rate in the training window (Brier skill above zero) by more than rotating the forecasts in time does (one shift for all coins, 2000 shifts). Per-coin results are exploratory (Benjamini-Hochberg). Our earlier results (no rule beat luck on any of 156 rule x coin pairs; minute-level direction, H-001/H-002, failed) make a pass unlikely. A paper portfolio holds a share of the coin equal to the probability, trading only when the share moves by 10 points or more; it is reported against holding and against a constant share equal to its own average (timing skill would beat the constant share). Shares alpha with H-028 (0.05 / 2).","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"FAIL","mark":"\u274c","summary":"pooled Brier skill -0.0089 (p = 0.012, need p < 0.025); skill above zero on 5/13 coins; paper portfolio beats holding on 4/13 and the constant share on 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daily model gives every coin's chance of a bigger move than usual better than its base rate","status":"passed","family":"forecast","rationale":"Same model and inputs as H-027, different question: the probability that the next day's absolute log move is larger than the coin's median absolute daily move over the past 365 days (measured up to D, so the base rate is near one half). Price direction is close to unpredictable, but the size of moves clusters in calm and nervous stretches, so this is where a model can show real skill; it would help size positions and avoid big losses, not make money by itself. One logistic regression shared by all 13 coins. Inputs at the close of day D: log returns over 1, 3, 7 and 30 days, distance from the 50- and 200-day averages, 7- and 30-day volatility, Bitcoin's 1- and 7-day returns, and, lagged one day for publication delay, BTC funding (7-day mean), Fear & Greed, 30-day USDT+USDC supply growth and 7-day BTC net exchange flow. Every input is a rolling 365-day z-score of its own past (min. 180 days, clipped at \u00b15), so coins with very different volatility share one model. The model is refitted on the first day of every month on decisions whose outcome was already known (up to two days before), L2 = 1. Costs: 0.1 % per side on Binance, 0.4 % per side on Gate.io coins (0.2 % fee + 0.2 % slippage). Passes on the same pooled Brier-skill test from 2022 on; the circular shift is conservative here, because rotated forecasts still overlap long volatility regimes. Shares alpha with H-027 (0.05 / 2).","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"PASS","mark":"\u2705","summary":"pooled Brier skill +0.0383 (p = 0.000, need p < 0.025); skill above zero on 13/13 coins","run_at":"2026-10-28T04:37:34Z","data_end":"2026-10-26","source":"engine","history":[],"spec":{"kind":"forecast","target":"risk","model":{"type":"pooled_logit","features":["r1","r3","r7","r30","d50","d200","v7","v30","btc_r1","btc_r7","funding","fear_greed","stable30","flow7"],"zscore_window":365,"zscore_min_periods":180,"clip":5,"l2":1.0,"refit":"monthly","external_lag":1,"ffill_limit":3},"universe":["BTCUSDT","ETHUSDT","SOLUSDT","BNBUSDT","XRPUSDT","ADAUSDT","LTCUSDT","LINKUSDT","DOGEUSDT","XLMUSDT","TRXUSDT","EVERUSDT","GRAMUSDT"],"costs":{"default":0.001,"EVERUSDT":0.004,"GRAMUSDT":0.004},"periods":[{"name":"oos","start":"2022-01-01"}],"significance":{"method":"circular_shift","n":2000,"alpha":0.025},"criterion":{"metric":"brier_skill","pooled":true}},"rows":[{"symbol":"BTCUSDT","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":1760,"bss":0.017198,"brier":0.247008,"brier_ref":0.25133,"hits":0.563068,"q":0.0005},{"symbol":"ETHUSDT","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":1760,"bss":0.028178,"brier":0.243552,"brier_ref":0.250614,"hits":0.563636,"q":0.0005},{"symbol":"SOLUSDT","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":1760,"bss":0.02456,"brier":0.243441,"brier_ref":0.249571,"hits":0.573295,"q":0.0005},{"symbol":"BNBUSDT","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":1760,"bss":0.029999,"brier":0.242537,"brier_ref":0.250038,"hits":0.58125,"q":0.0005},{"symbol":"XRPUSDT","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":1760,"bss":0.040601,"brier":0.241051,"brier_ref":0.251252,"hits":0.575,"q":0.0005},{"symbol":"ADAUSDT","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":1760,"bss":0.043881,"brier":0.239644,"brier_ref":0.250643,"hits":0.575568,"q":0.0005},{"symbol":"LTCUSDT","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":1760,"bss":0.015247,"brier":0.246485,"brier_ref":0.250301,"hits":0.564205,"q":0.0005},{"symbol":"LINKUSDT","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":1760,"bss":0.037199,"brier":0.241805,"brier_ref":0.251147,"hits":0.577841,"q":0.0005},{"symbol":"DOGEUSDT","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":1760,"bss":0.054193,"brier":0.237024,"brier_ref":0.250605,"hits":0.574432,"q":0.0005},{"symbol":"XLMUSDT","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":1760,"bss":0.056369,"brier":0.237259,"brier_ref":0.251432,"hits":0.590341,"q":0.0005},{"symbol":"TRXUSDT","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":1760,"bss":0.036412,"brier":0.239422,"brier_ref":0.248469,"hits":0.595455,"q":0.0005},{"symbol":"EVERUSDT","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2023-03-31","end":"2026-10-26","days":1306,"bss":0.071502,"brier":0.237249,"brier_ref":0.25552,"hits":0.586524,"q":0.0005},{"symbol":"GRAMUSDT","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2024-03-25","end":"2026-10-26","days":946,"bss":0.060032,"brier":0.240832,"brier_ref":0.256213,"hits":0.577167,"q":0.0005},{"symbol":"ALL","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":21612,"bss":0.038277,"brier":0.241436,"brier_ref":0.251045,"hits":0.576532}],"curves":[],"test_after":null,"registered":"2026-10-28","replicates":null,"monthly":[],"calibration":[{"lo":0.1,"hi":0.2,"n":9,"p":0.1864,"y":0.4444},{"lo":0.2,"hi":0.3,"n":615,"p":0.2709,"y":0.3333},{"lo":0.3,"hi":0.4,"n":4426,"p":0.3615,"y":0.3814},{"lo":0.4,"hi":0.5,"n":8013,"p":0.4505,"y":0.4375},{"lo":0.5,"hi":0.6,"n":5819,"p":0.544,"y":0.5185},{"lo":0.6,"hi":0.7,"n":2079,"p":0.6405,"y":0.6215},{"lo":0.7,"hi":0.8,"n":547,"p":0.7392,"y":0.7386},{"lo":0.8,"hi":0.9,"n":99,"p":0.8358,"y":0.8384},{"lo":0.9,"hi":1.0,"n":5,"p":0.9276,"y":0.8}],"progress":null},{"id":"H-029","title":"Live replication of H-027: daily direction forecasts published before 12:00 UTC","status":"registered","family":"forecast","rationale":"H-027 can only use history, where the model is fitted with hindsight about which inputs exist and external data may have been revised. This repeats the exact model live from 2026-10-29. Every morning the workflow computes the forecasts from yesterday's close with that month's model (fitted on the month's first day, stored once in datasets/forecast_models/ and never refitted) and appends them to datasets/forecast_log.csv; the commit to GitHub proves they existed before the outcome. Only forecasts published before 12:00 UTC count; the outcome runs from the open of the 12:00 UTC hourly candle to the next day's (datasets/noon_prices.csv: Binance hourly files, Gate.io API), so the real delay between data and trade is in the test. Same pooled Brier-skill test against the base rate and the same paper portfolio (share = probability, 10-point band, fees and slippage), first tested after about a year of live forecasts. Shares alpha with H-030 (0.05 / 2).","rerunnable":true,"verdict":null,"mark":"","summary":"","run_at":null,"data_end":null,"source":null,"history":[],"spec":{"kind":"forecast_live","target":"direction","model":{"type":"pooled_logit","features":["r1","r3","r7","r30","d50","d200","v7","v30","btc_r1","btc_r7","funding","fear_greed","stable30","flow7"],"zscore_window":365,"zscore_min_periods":180,"clip":5,"l2":1.0,"refit":"monthly","external_lag":1,"ffill_limit":3},"universe":["BTCUSDT","ETHUSDT","SOLUSDT","BNBUSDT","XRPUSDT","ADAUSDT","LTCUSDT","LINKUSDT","DOGEUSDT","XLMUSDT","TRXUSDT","EVERUSDT","GRAMUSDT"],"costs":{"default":0.001,"EVERUSDT":0.004,"GRAMUSDT":0.004},"portfolio":{"weight":"probability","band":0.1},"execution":{"time_utc":"12:00"},"periods":[{"name":"forward","start":"2026-10-29"}],"significance":{"method":"circular_shift","n":2000,"alpha":0.025},"criterion":{"metric":"brier_skill","pooled":true}},"rows":[],"curves":[],"test_after":"2027-11-01","registered":"2026-10-28","replicates":"H-027","progress":{"done":0,"total":368,"share":0.0,"date":"2027-11-01"}},{"id":"H-030","title":"Live replication of H-028: daily forecasts of bigger-than-usual moves, published before 12:00 UTC","status":"registered","family":"forecast","rationale":"Repeats H-028 live from 2026-10-29 with the same frozen monthly models. Every morning the workflow computes the forecasts from yesterday's close with that month's model (fitted on the month's first day, stored once in datasets/forecast_models/ and never refitted) and appends them to datasets/forecast_log.csv; the commit to GitHub proves they existed before the outcome. Only forecasts published before 12:00 UTC count; the outcome runs from the open of the 12:00 UTC hourly candle to the next day's (datasets/noon_prices.csv: Binance hourly files, Gate.io API), so the real delay between data and trade is in the test. The risk threshold of each day is the coin's median absolute daily move up to the decision day, stored with the forecast. First tested after about a year of live forecasts. Shares alpha with H-029 (0.05 / 2).","rerunnable":true,"verdict":null,"mark":"","summary":"","run_at":null,"data_end":null,"source":null,"history":[],"spec":{"kind":"forecast_live","target":"risk","model":{"type":"pooled_logit","features":["r1","r3","r7","r30","d50","d200","v7","v30","btc_r1","btc_r7","funding","fear_greed","stable30","flow7"],"zscore_window":365,"zscore_min_periods":180,"clip":5,"l2":1.0,"refit":"monthly","external_lag":1,"ffill_limit":3},"universe":["BTCUSDT","ETHUSDT","SOLUSDT","BNBUSDT","XRPUSDT","ADAUSDT","LTCUSDT","LINKUSDT","DOGEUSDT","XLMUSDT","TRXUSDT","EVERUSDT","GRAMUSDT"],"costs":{"default":0.001,"EVERUSDT":0.004,"GRAMUSDT":0.004},"execution":{"time_utc":"12:00"},"periods":[{"name":"forward","start":"2026-10-29"}],"significance":{"method":"circular_shift","n":2000,"alpha":0.025},"criterion":{"metric":"brier_skill","pooled":true}},"rows":[],"curves":[],"test_after":"2027-11-01","registered":"2026-10-28","replicates":"H-028","progress":{"done":0,"total":368,"share":0.0,"date":"2027-11-01"}},{"id":"H-031","title":"Live: an improved daily model (coin-specific levels, recalibrated) gives each coin's chance of rising above fees better than its base rate","status":"registered","family":"forecast","rationale":"Asked for by F1DevBin after H-027 failed, and designed after seeing H-027's history result, so it is judged only on forecasts published from 2026-11-01 on, data nobody has seen. H-027's probabilities were biased and overconfident: one shared intercept ignored that Gate.io coins need a larger move to beat their costs (Brier skill -0.10 on EVER, -0.03 on GRAM), and where it said 53 % only 46 % happened. Two changes, nothing else: (1) a separate intercept per coin, ridge-penalised like the other weights; (2) Platt recalibration: a model trained on data up to a year before the month's cutoff scores that last year, a one-variable logistic regression maps those scores to outcomes, and the map is applied to the model trained on all data. Same inputs, coins, costs, monthly refits (frozen in datasets/forecast_models/YYYY-MM_v2.json), paper portfolio and scoring as H-029, published in the same daily log before 12:00 UTC (columns ending in _v2) and scored noon to noon. Expectation written before any result: the bias disappears and the skill moves to about zero; beating the base rate clearly is unlikely, because H-027's forecasts carried only a trace of information. Alpha: H-029 is locked at 0.025, so this direction test takes half of it, 0.0125.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":null,"mark":"","summary":"","run_at":null,"data_end":null,"source":null,"history":[],"spec":{"kind":"forecast_live","target":"direction","model":{"type":"pooled_logit","features":["r1","r3","r7","r30","d50","d200","v7","v30","btc_r1","btc_r7","funding","fear_greed","stable30","flow7"],"zscore_window":365,"zscore_min_periods":180,"clip":5,"l2":1.0,"refit":"monthly","external_lag":1,"ffill_limit":3,"coin_intercepts":true,"calibration":"platt_365"},"log_suffix":"_v2","universe":["BTCUSDT","ETHUSDT","SOLUSDT","BNBUSDT","XRPUSDT","ADAUSDT","LTCUSDT","LINKUSDT","DOGEUSDT","XLMUSDT","TRXUSDT","EVERUSDT","GRAMUSDT"],"costs":{"default":0.001,"EVERUSDT":0.004,"GRAMUSDT":0.004},"portfolio":{"weight":"probability","band":0.1},"execution":{"time_utc":"12:00"},"periods":[{"name":"forward","start":"2026-11-01"}],"significance":{"method":"circular_shift","n":2000,"alpha":0.0125},"criterion":{"metric":"brier_skill","pooled":true}},"rows":[],"curves":[],"test_after":"2027-11-01","registered":"2026-10-28","replicates":null,"progress":{"done":0,"total":365,"share":0.0,"date":"2027-11-01"}},{"id":"H-032","title":"Gate.io EVER 'smart wallets': deposits of wallets picked on 2022-23 foretell 7-day drops better than random wallets","status":"rejected","family":"flows","rationale":"Idea by F1DevBin: wallets that move EVER to an exchange before it falls may know something, and if they do, the same wallets should keep doing it. Data: Gate.io's Everscale hot wallet (found 2026-10-28 from a withdrawal to the owner's wallet; ~70 M EVER, active since 2021-10). Users send EVER to personal deposit addresses that Gate sweeps into the hot wallet; a deposit address is a sender to the hot wallet that forwarded at least 90 % of its outflow there, and a 'wallet' is whoever sent EVER to such an address (crl data everscale, public GraphQL, addresses stored only as short SHA-256 ids; the owner's addresses are excluded when the data is built; transfers from Gate's own addresses are dropped). An event is a wallet's transfer of at least 10 EVER into a deposit address that had already been swept before it (so the address was knowable as Gate's at that moment); transfers within 7 days of the wallet's previous event join it; wallets with more than 100 transfers in a calendar month of the selection period are services and are dropped. Outcome: log return of EVER (Gate.io daily closes) from the close of the event's UTC day to the close 7 days later. Selection 2022-01-01 to 2023-12-24 (the last 7-day window ends before 2024, so no later price is used): wallets with 5+ events; the 20 % with the lowest mean outcome are 'smart' (need 25+ eligible wallets). Test from 2024-01-01: the mean outcome of the smart wallets' events (need 30+) against 1000 random sets of eligible wallets matched on their number of selection events; passes if p < 0.05 (one-sided: as low or lower). Also reported: holding EVER but staying out for 7 days after any smart-wallet event, decided at that day's close, with Gate's 0.2 % fee plus 0.2 % slippage per side, against holding. EVER only: this wallet-level data exists only on Everscale (an exception to the all-coins rule); GRAM on TON is a separate future hypothesis. Expectation written before any result: the 2022-23 'smart' wallets were mostly lucky and will not beat random wallets from 2024.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"FAIL","mark":"\u274c","summary":"17 smart wallets of 85; from 2024-01-01 their 33 deposits were followed by a mean 7-day log return of -0.0152 vs -0.0378 for random matched wallets (p = 0.931, need p < 0.05); exit rule Sharpe -0.19 vs hold -0.08","run_at":"2026-10-28T18:29:12Z","data_end":"2026-10-27","source":"engine","history":[],"spec":{"kind":"wallet_deposits","asset":"EVERUSDT","universe":["EVERUSDT"],"hot_wallet":"0:3addd84bf73267312a477049fd9b8db761bf39c585c150f8e6f9451347af2b6c","dataset":"ever_gate_deposits.csv.gz","filters":{"min_value":10,"swept_before":true,"merge_days":7,"max_monthly":100},"selection":{"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2023-12-24","min_events":5,"horizon_days":7,"smart_share":0.2,"min_wallets":25},"test":{"start":"2024-01-01","min_events":30},"null":{"method":"random_wallets_matched","n":1000,"buckets":[5,6,8,11,16,26]},"significance":{"alpha":0.05},"rule":{"exit_days":7,"fee":0.002,"slippage":0.002}},"rows":[{"symbol":"EVERUSDT","period":"selection","start":"2022-01-01","end":"2023-12-24","wallets":85,"smart":17,"events":889,"smart_mean":-0.091038,"all_mean":-0.031265},{"symbol":"EVERUSDT","period":"test","p":0.931069,"win":false,"start":"2024-01-01","end":"2026-10-20","smart":6,"events":33,"smart_mean":-0.015217,"random_mean":-0.037752},{"symbol":"EVERUSDT","period":"rule","sharpe":-0.19465,"hold_sharpe":-0.082789,"cagr":-0.728629,"hold_cagr":-0.721211,"max_dd":-0.983594,"hold_max_dd":-0.989911,"exposure":0.807953,"trades_per_year":7.080504,"p":0.657171,"beats_hold":false,"win":false,"start":"2024-01-01","end":"2026-10-27","days":1031}],"curves":[],"test_after":null,"registered":"2026-10-28","replicates":null,"progress":null},{"id":"H-033","title":"Gate.io GRAM 'smart wallets': deposits of $500+ by wallets picked on 2023-24 foretell 7-day drops better than random wallets","status":"rejected","family":"flows","rationale":"Same question as H-032 on Gram (GRAM, prev. Toncoin), asked for by F1DevBin after H-032 failed. On TON, Gate.io takes deposits on one shared wallet (0:b496b8f7...60bc281f, labelled 'Gate.io' and whitelisted by tonapi, active since 2022-11-04): users send GRAM straight to it with their Gate account number as a text comment, so there are no sweeps and a 'wallet' is the sending address (crl data ton: public toncenter v3 index, text-comment transfers that did not bounce, addresses stored only as short SHA-256 ids; the deposit wallet itself and other Gate.io-labelled accounts are dropped, as are the owner's addresses if he names any). Differences from H-032, all decided before any outcome: windows follow GRAM's price history on Gate.io (from 2023-03-13): selection 2023-03-13 to 2024-12-24, test from 2025-01-01; no sweep rule. Size: F1DevBin found 10 coins too small to matter, so an event is a transfer worth at least $500 at the close of its day (when the event is decided). The size was picked by a rule written down before the data were counted (scripts/h033_threshold.py): the highest of $10 000, $5 000, $1 000, $500 with at least 75 wallets having 5+ selection events and at least 300 test-period events for them; counts only, no return was computed ($10 000: 81 wallets and 109 test-period events; $5 000: 88 and 135; $1 000: 137 and 219; $500: 183 and 342, so $500). Services: wallets with more than 100 transfers of 1+ GRAM in a calendar month of the selection period. Everything else as in H-032: events of one wallet within 7 days join; outcome = log return of GRAM (Gate.io daily closes) from the close of the event's day to 7 days later; 'smart' = lowest 20 % mean outcome among wallets with 5+ selection events (need 25+); test: their events' mean outcome (need 30+) vs 1000 random sets matched on selection-event counts, pass if p < 0.05 (one-sided); exit rule with Gate's 0.2 % fee + 0.2 % slippage vs holding. GRAM only: wallet-level data is per chain (exception to the all-coins rule). Expectation written before any result: like H-032, the 'smart' wallets were lucky, not informed.","rerunnable":true,"verdict":"FAIL","mark":"\u274c","summary":"36 smart wallets of 183; from 2025-01-01 their 144 deposits were followed by a mean 7-day log return of -0.0050 vs -0.0196 for random matched wallets (p = 0.768, need p < 0.05); exit rule Sharpe -1.80 vs hold -0.71","run_at":"2026-10-28T22:06:00Z","data_end":"2026-10-27","source":"engine","history":[],"spec":{"kind":"wallet_deposits","asset":"GRAMUSDT","universe":["GRAMUSDT"],"deposit_wallet":"0:b496b8f73b469ff06a2d89e62c4d70a103fc228c821537b49dff092060bc281f","dataset":"gram_gate_deposits.csv.gz","filters":{"min_value":1,"min_usd":500,"swept_before":false,"merge_days":7,"max_monthly":100},"selection":{"start":"2023-03-13","end":"2024-12-24","min_events":5,"horizon_days":7,"smart_share":0.2,"min_wallets":25},"test":{"start":"2025-01-01","min_events":30},"null":{"method":"random_wallets_matched","n":1000,"buckets":[5,6,8,11,16,26]},"significance":{"alpha":0.05},"rule":{"exit_days":7,"fee":0.002,"slippage":0.002}},"rows":[{"symbol":"GRAMUSDT","period":"selection","start":"2023-03-13","end":"2024-12-24","wallets":183,"smart":36,"events":1565,"smart_mean":-0.039224,"all_mean":0.013326},{"symbol":"GRAMUSDT","period":"test","p":0.768232,"win":false,"start":"2025-01-01","end":"2026-10-20","smart":12,"events":144,"smart_mean":-0.004982,"random_mean":-0.01964},{"symbol":"GRAMUSDT","period":"rule","sharpe":-1.800317,"hold_sharpe":-0.709164,"cagr":-0.382399,"hold_cagr":-0.560568,"max_dd":-0.591485,"hold_max_dd":-0.792826,"exposure":0.160902,"trades_per_year":12.075188,"p":0.934533,"beats_hold":false,"win":false,"start":"2025-01-01","end":"2026-10-27","days":665}],"curves":[],"test_after":null,"registered":"2026-10-29","replicates":null,"progress":null}],"data":[{"series":"ADAUSDT","first":"2018-04-17","last":"2026-10-28","lag_days":1,"points":3117},{"series":"BNBUSDT","first":"2017-11-06","last":"2026-10-28","lag_days":1,"points":3279},{"series":"BTCUSDT","first":"2017-08-17","last":"2026-10-28","lag_days":1,"points":3360},{"series":"DOGEUSDT","first":"2019-07-05","last":"2026-10-28","lag_days":1,"points":2673},{"series":"ETHUSDT","first":"2017-08-17","last":"2026-10-28","lag_days":1,"points":3360},{"series":"EVERUSDT","first":"2022-03-18","last":"2026-10-28","lag_days":1,"points":1686},{"series":"GRAMUSDT","first":"2023-03-13","last":"2026-10-28","lag_days":1,"points":1326},{"series":"LINKUSDT","first":"2019-01-16","last":"2026-10-28","lag_days":1,"points":2843},{"series":"LTCUSDT","first":"2017-12-13","last":"2026-10-28","lag_days":1,"points":3242},{"series":"SOLUSDT","first":"2020-08-11","last":"2026-10-28","lag_days":1,"points":2270},{"series":"TRXUSDT","first":"2018-06-11","last":"2026-10-28","lag_days":1,"points":3062},{"series":"XLMUSDT","first":"2018-05-31","last":"2026-10-28","lag_days":1,"points":3073},{"series":"XRPUSDT","first":"2018-05-04","last":"2026-10-28","lag_days":1,"points":3100},{"series":"funding 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"official":false,"status":"worse","sharpe":0.182571,"hold_sharpe":0.258186,"cagr":-0.137639,"hold_cagr":-0.147,"start":"2022-01-01","p":0.58483,"q":0.892215},{"rule":"H-021","symbol":"XLMUSDT","official":false,"status":"worse","sharpe":-0.012504,"hold_sharpe":0.297769,"cagr":-0.217487,"hold_cagr":-0.088418,"start":"2022-01-01","p":0.846307,"q":0.972786},{"rule":"H-021","symbol":"TRXUSDT","official":false,"status":"better","sharpe":0.765383,"hold_sharpe":0.744763,"cagr":0.257072,"hold_cagr":0.35928,"start":"2022-01-01","p":0.129741,"q":0.531621},{"rule":"H-021","symbol":"EVERUSDT","official":false,"status":"better","sharpe":-0.103652,"hold_sharpe":-0.153203,"cagr":-0.540809,"hold_cagr":-0.68316,"start":"2022-03-19","p":0.339321,"q":0.705788},{"rule":"H-021","symbol":"GRAMUSDT","official":false,"status":"worse","sharpe":-0.306698,"hold_sharpe":0.131635,"cagr":-0.316628,"hold_cagr":-0.168216,"start":"2023-03-14","p":0.89022,"q":0.972786}]},"digests":[{"week":"2026-W44","date":"2026-10-26","model":"openai/gpt-oss-120b","languages":["en","es","pt","ru","tr","vi","zh"],"errors":{},"texts":{"en":"The market shows modest optimism: BTC funding carry is +2.2% (low), the Crypto Fear & Greed index sits at 50 (neutral), and BTC is 9.8% above its 200\u2011day average while volatility is calm at 25% annualised.\n\n- USDT+USDC supply fell 1.96% over 30\u202fdays, indicating contraction.  \n- BTC net flow to exchanges was \u2013991\u202fBTC in the past week, suggesting withdrawals.  \n- Market breadth shows 54\u202f% of coins above their 200\u2011day average, a mixed signal.  \n- Everscale (EVER) is 25.8\u202f% below its 50\u2011day average.  \n- All three tested hypotheses (H\u2011024 relative\u2011strength rotation, H\u2011025 plain momentum rotation, H\u2011026 short\u2011term reversal) failed to beat the equal\u2011weight basket for both since\u20112020 and since\u20112022 periods.  \n\nNo tested hypothesis improved; the results remain unchanged.\n","ru":"\u0420\u044b\u043d\u043e\u043a \u0434\u0435\u043c\u043e\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0438\u0440\u0443\u0435\u0442 \u0443\u043c\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043e\u043f\u0442\u0438\u043c\u0438\u0437\u043c: BTC funding carry \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442 +2.2% (\u043d\u0438\u0437\u043a\u043e), \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0435\u043a\u0441 Crypto Fear & Greed \u043d\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043d\u0430 \u0443\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043d\u0435 50 (\u043d\u0435\u0439\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e), \u0430 BTC \u043d\u0430 9.8% \u0432\u044b\u0448\u0435 \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0435\u0439 200\u2011\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0439, \u043f\u0440\u0438 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u043c \u0432\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0442\u0438\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0441\u043f\u043e\u043a\u043e\u0439\u043d\u0430 \u2014 25% \u0433\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0445.\n\n- USDT+USDC supply \u0443\u043f\u0430\u043b \u043d\u0430 1.96% \u0437\u0430 30\u202f\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0439, \u0443\u043a\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u044f \u043d\u0430 \u0441\u043e\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435.  \n- BTC net flow to exchanges \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0438\u043b \u2013991\u202fBTC \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0448\u043b\u0443\u044e \u043d\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044e, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0441\u0432\u0438\u0434\u0435\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0443\u0435\u0442 \u043e \u0432\u044b\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0445.  \n- Market breadth \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u0435\u0442, \u0447\u0442\u043e 54\u202f% \u043c\u043e\u043d\u0435\u0442 \u043d\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u044f\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432\u044b\u0448\u0435 \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0435\u0439 200\u2011\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0439, \u0441\u043c\u0435\u0448\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0441\u0438\u0433\u043d\u0430\u043b.  \n- Everscale (EVER) \u043d\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043d\u0430 25.8\u202f% \u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435 \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0435\u0439 50\u2011\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0439.  \n- \u0412\u0441\u0435 \u0442\u0440\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0433\u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0437\u044b (H\u2011024 relative\u2011strength rotation, H\u2011025 plain momentum rotation, H\u2011026 short\u2011term reversal) \u043d\u0435 \u0441\u043c\u043e\u0433\u043b\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0432\u0437\u043e\u0439\u0442\u0438 equal\u2011weight basket \u043a\u0430\u043a \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0438\u043e\u0434 since\u20112020, \u0442\u0430\u043a \u0438 \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0438\u043e\u0434 since\u20112022.  \n\n\u041d\u0438 \u043e\u0434\u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0433\u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0437\u0430 \u043d\u0435 \u0443\u043b\u0443\u0447\u0448\u0438\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044c; \u0440\u0435\u0437\u0443\u043b\u044c\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044b \u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u044e\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0431\u0435\u0437 \u0438\u0437\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439.\n","es":"El mercado muestra un optimismo modesto: el carry de financiaci\u00f3n de BTC es +2.2% (bajo), el \u00edndice Crypto Fear & Greed est\u00e1 en 50 (neutral), y BTC est\u00e1 9.8% por encima de su promedio de 200\u202fd\u00edas mientras la volatilidad se mantiene calmada en 25% anualizado.\n\n- El suministro de USDT+USDC cay\u00f3 1.96% en 30\u202fd\u00edas, indicando contracci\u00f3n.  \n- El flujo neto de BTC a los intercambios fue \u2013991\u202fBTC en la \u00faltima semana, sugiriendo retiros.  \n- La amplitud del mercado muestra 54\u202f% de las monedas por encima de su promedio de 200\u202fd\u00edas, una se\u00f1al mixta.  \n- Everscale (EVER) est\u00e1 25.8\u202f% por debajo de su promedio de 50\u202fd\u00edas.  \n- Las tres hip\u00f3tesis probadas (H\u2011024 rotaci\u00f3n de fuerza relativa, H\u2011025 rotaci\u00f3n de impulso simple, H\u2011026 reversi\u00f3n a corto plazo) no superaron la cesta de peso igual para los periodos desde\u20112020 y desde\u20112022.  \n\nNinguna hip\u00f3tesis probada mejor\u00f3; los resultados permanecen sin cambios.\n","pt":"O mercado mostra otimismo moderado: o carry de financiamento do BTC est\u00e1 em +2,2\u202f% (baixo), o \u00edndice Crypto Fear & Greed est\u00e1 em 50 (neutro) e o BTC est\u00e1 9,8\u202f% acima de sua m\u00e9dia de 200\u202fdias enquanto a volatilidade est\u00e1 calma em 25\u202f% anualizada.\n\n- O suprimento de USDT+USDC caiu 1,96\u202f% em 30\u202fdias, indicando contra\u00e7\u00e3o.  \n- O fluxo l\u00edquido de BTC para exchanges foi de \u2013991\u202fBTC na semana passada, sugerindo retiradas.  \n- A amplitude do mercado mostra 54\u202f% das moedas acima de sua m\u00e9dia de 200\u202fdias, um sinal misto.  \n- Everscale (EVER) est\u00e1 25,8\u202f% abaixo de sua m\u00e9dia de 50\u202fdias.  \n- Todas as tr\u00eas hip\u00f3teses testadas (H\u2011024 rota\u00e7\u00e3o de for\u00e7a relativa, H\u2011025 rota\u00e7\u00e3o de momentum simples, H\u2011026 revers\u00e3o de curto prazo) falharam em superar a cesta de peso igual para os per\u00edodos desde\u20112020 e desde\u20112022.  \n\nNenhuma hip\u00f3tese testada melhorou; os resultados permanecem inalterados.\n","tr":"Piyasa m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir iyimserlik g\u00f6steriyor: BTC fonlama ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 +%2.2 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck), Kripto Korku & A\u00e7g\u00f6zl\u00fcl\u00fck endeksi 50 (n\u00f6tr) seviyesinde ve BTC, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n %9.8 \u00fczerinde, volatilite ise y\u0131ll\u0131k %25'te sakin.\n\n- USDT+USDC arz\u0131 30\u202fg\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1.96 azald\u0131, daralma g\u00f6steriyor.  \n- BTC net ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, ge\u00e7en hafta borsalara \u2013991\u202fBTC olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti, \u00e7ekilmeler \u00f6neriyor.  \n- Piyasa geni\u015fli\u011fi, coinlerin %54'\u00fcn\u00fcn 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor, kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir sinyal.  \n- Everscale (EVER), 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n %25.8 alt\u0131nda.  \n- Test edilen \u00fc\u00e7 hipotez (H\u2011024 g\u00f6receli\u2011g\u00fc\u00e7 rotasyonu, H\u2011025 basit momentum rotasyonu, H\u2011026 k\u0131sa\u2011vadeli tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f) hem 2020'den beri hem de 2022'den beri e\u015f\u2011a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 sepeti ge\u00e7emedi.  \n\nTest edilen hipotezlerden hi\u00e7biri iyile\u015fmedi; sonu\u00e7lar de\u011fi\u015fmedi.\n","vi":"Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 l\u1ea1c quan khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n: BTC funding carry l\u00e0 +2.2% (th\u1ea5p), ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Crypto Fear & Greed \u1edf m\u1ee9c 50 (trung t\u00ednh), v\u00e0 BTC cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 200\u2011ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 9.8% trong khi \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u1edf m\u1ee9c 25% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m.\n\n- Cung USDT+USDC gi\u1ea3m 1.96% trong 30\u202fng\u00e0y, cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 co l\u1ea1i.  \n- D\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n r\u00f2ng BTC v\u00e0o c\u00e1c s\u00e0n l\u00e0 \u2013991\u202fBTC trong tu\u1ea7n qua, g\u1ee3i \u00fd r\u00fat ti\u1ec1n.  \n- \u0110\u1ed9 r\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng cho th\u1ea5y 54\u202f% c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng coin tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 200\u2011ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang, m\u1ed9t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u h\u1ed7n h\u1ee3p.  \n- Everscale (EVER) th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 50\u2011ng\u00e0y 25.8\u202f%.  \n- C\u1ea3 ba gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft \u0111\u00e3 ki\u1ec3m tra (H\u2011024 relative\u2011strength rotation, H\u2011025 plain momentum rotation, H\u2011026 short\u2011term reversal) \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua r\u1ed5 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 b\u1eb1ng nhau cho c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n since\u20112020 v\u00e0 since\u20112022.  \n\nKh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m tra c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n; k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i.\n","zh":"\u5e02\u573a\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u9002\u5ea6\u4e50\u89c2\uff1aBTC \u878d\u8d44\u5229\u5dee\u4e3a +2.2%\uff08\u4f4e\uff09\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u6050\u60e7\u4e0e\u8d2a\u5a6a\u6307\u6570\u4e3a 50\uff08\u4e2d\u6027\uff09\uff0cBTC \u4ef7\u683c\u6bd4\u5176 200 \u5929\u5747\u7ebf\u9ad8\u51fa 9.8%\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u5e74\u5316 25% \u7684\u5e73\u7a33\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\n\n- USDT+USDC \u4f9b\u5e94\u5728 30\u202f\u5929\u5185\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86 1.96%\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u6536\u7f29\u3002  \n- BTC \u51c0\u6d41\u5165\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u4e3a \u2013991\u202fBTC\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5468\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u63d0\u5e01\u3002  \n- \u5e02\u573a\u5e7f\u5ea6\u663e\u793a 54\u202f% \u7684\u5e01\u79cd\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176 200\u202f\u5929\u5747\u7ebf\uff0c\u4fe1\u53f7\u6df7\u5408\u3002  \n- Everscale (EVER) \u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176 50\u202f\u5929\u5747\u7ebf 25.8\u202f%\u3002  \n- \u6240\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u5df2\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff08H\u2011024 \u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u5ea6\u8f6e\u52a8\u3001H\u2011025 \u7eaf\u52a8\u91cf\u8f6e\u52a8\u3001H\u2011026 \u77ed\u671f\u53cd\u8f6c\uff09\u5728\u81ea 2020 \u5e74\u548c\u81ea 2022 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u7b49\u6743\u7bee\u5b50\u4e2d\u5747\u672a\u53d6\u5f97\u8d85\u8d8a\u3002  \n\n\u672a\u6709\u5df2\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u5f97\u5230\u6539\u8fdb\uff1b\u7ed3\u679c\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\n"}},{"week":"2026-W43","date":"2026-10-21","model":"openai/gpt-oss-120b","languages":["en","es","pt","ru","tr","vi","zh"],"errors":{},"texts":{"en":"This week the market shows modest optimism: BTC funding carry is +1.8% (low), the Crypto Fear & Greed index sits at 63 (greed), and BTC trades 14.2% above its 200\u2011day average while its 30\u2011day realised volatility is 33% (calm). USDT\u202f+\u202fUSDC supply fell 1.02% over 30\u202fdays, and 62% of coins are above their 200\u2011day averages.\n\n- BTC net flow to exchanges rose by 1,173\u202fBTC in the last 7\u202fdays, triggering H\u2011020 \u201cBTC in\u201d (rule\u202f=\u202f1).  \n- H\u2011020 passed: BTC out\u2011of\u2011market rule beat buy\u2011and\u2011hold with Sharpe\u202f0.83 vs\u202f0.50 and CAGR\u202f+31% vs\u202f+13% (in\u2011market\u202f83%).  \n- H\u2011021 (ETH out\u2011of\u2011market) was weak: Sharpe\u202f0.40 vs\u202f0.22, CAGR\u202f+7% vs\u202f\u20118%, in\u2011market\u202f80%.  \n- H\u2011024 (relative\u2011strength rotation) failed: since\u202f2020 Sharpe\u202f0.76 vs\u202f1.13 hold, CAGR\u202f+32% vs\u202f+76%; since\u202f2022 Sharpe\u202f0.44 vs\u202f0.41, CAGR\u202f+11% vs\u202f+6%.  \n- H\u2011025 (plain momentum) failed: since\u202f2020 Sharpe\u202f0.91 vs\u202f1.13, CAGR\u202f+51% vs\u202f+76%; since\u202f2022 Sharpe\u202f0.19 vs\u202f0.41, CAGR\u202f\u201110% vs\u202f+6%.  \n- H\u2011026 (short\u2011term reversal) failed: since\u202f2020 Sharpe\u202f0.17 vs\u202f1.13, CAGR\u202f\u201122% vs\u202f+76%; since\u202f2022 Sharpe\u202f\u20110.82 vs\u202f0.41, CAGR\u202f\u201154% vs\u202f+6%.\n\nThe tested hypotheses H\u2011024, H\u2011025 and H\u2011026 all remained unsuccessful, while H\u2011020 stayed successful and H\u2011021 stayed weak.\n","ru":"\u041d\u0430 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0439 \u043d\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0435 \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043e\u043a \u0434\u0435\u043c\u043e\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0438\u0440\u0443\u0435\u0442 \u0441\u043a\u0440\u043e\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043e\u043f\u0442\u0438\u043c\u0438\u0437\u043c: \u0444\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435 BTC \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442 +1,8\u202f% (\u043d\u0438\u0437\u043a\u043e\u0435), \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0435\u043a\u0441 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0445\u0430 \u0438 \u0436\u0430\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u043a\u0440\u0438\u043f\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e\u0442 \u043d\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043d\u0430 \u0443\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043d\u0435 63 (\u0436\u0430\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c), \u0430 BTC \u0442\u043e\u0440\u0433\u0443\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043d\u0430 14,2\u202f% \u0432\u044b\u0448\u0435 \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0435\u0439 200\u2011\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0439, \u043f\u0440\u0438 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u043c 30\u2011\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0432\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0440\u0435\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0432\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0442\u0438\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442 33\u202f% (\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043a\u043e\u0439\u043d\u043e). \u0417\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0441\u044b USDT\u202f+\u202fUSDC \u0443\u043f\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u043d\u0430 1,02\u202f% \u0437\u0430 30\u202f\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0439, \u0438 62\u202f% \u043c\u043e\u043d\u0435\u0442 \u043d\u0430\u0445\u043e\u0434\u044f\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432\u044b\u0448\u0435 \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0438\u0445 200\u2011\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0438\u0445.\n\n- BTC \u0447\u0438\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0439 \u043f\u043e\u0442\u043e\u043a \u043d\u0430 \u0431\u0438\u0440\u0436\u0438 \u0432\u044b\u0440\u043e\u0441 \u043d\u0430 1\u202f173\u202fBTC \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0438\u0435 7\u202f\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0439, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0437\u0430\u043f\u0443\u0441\u0442\u0438\u043b\u043e H\u2011020 \u00abBTC in\u00bb (\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0438\u043b\u043e\u202f=\u202f1).  \n- H\u2011020 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0448\u0451\u043b: \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0438\u043b\u043e \u0432\u044b\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430 BTC \u0438\u0437 \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0432\u0437\u043e\u0448\u043b\u043e \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0435\u0433\u0438\u044e \u00ab\u043a\u0443\u043f\u0438\u0442\u044c \u0438 \u0434\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0430\u0442\u044c\u00bb \u0441 Sharpe\u202f0,83 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f0,50 \u0438 CAGR\u202f+31\u202f% \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f+13\u202f% (\u0432 \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043a\u0435\u202f83\u202f%).  \n- H\u2011021 (ETH out\u2011of\u2011market) \u0431\u044b\u043b \u0441\u043b\u0430\u0431\u044b\u043c: Sharpe\u202f0,40 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f0,22, CAGR\u202f+7\u202f% \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f\u20118\u202f%, \u0432 \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043a\u0435\u202f80\u202f%.  \n- H\u2011024 (\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f \u043e\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0441\u0438\u043b\u044b) \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438\u043b\u0441\u044f: \u0441\u202f2020 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 Sharpe\u202f0,76 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f1,13 hold, CAGR\u202f+32\u202f% \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f+76\u202f%; \u0441\u202f2022 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 Sharpe\u202f0,44 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f0,41, CAGR\u202f+11\u202f% \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f+6\u202f%.  \n- H\u2011025 (\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0439 \u0438\u043c\u043f\u0443\u043b\u044c\u0441) \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438\u043b\u0441\u044f: \u0441\u202f2020 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 Sharpe\u202f0,91 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f1,13, CAGR\u202f+51\u202f% \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f+76\u202f%; \u0441\u202f2022 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 Sharpe\u202f0,19 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f0,41, CAGR\u202f\u201110\u202f% \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f+6\u202f%.  \n- H\u2011026 (\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0441\u0440\u043e\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0440\u0435\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0441) \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438\u043b\u0441\u044f: \u0441\u202f2020 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 Sharpe\u202f0,17 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f1,13, CAGR\u202f\u201122\u202f% \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f+76\u202f%; \u0441\u202f2022 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 Sharpe\u202f\u20110,82 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f0,41, CAGR\u202f\u201154\u202f% \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0432\u202f+6\u202f%.\n\n\u0422\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0440\u0443\u0435\u043c\u044b\u0435 \u0433\u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0437\u044b H\u2011024, H\u2011025 \u0438 H\u2011026 \u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c \u043d\u0435\u0443\u0441\u043f\u0435\u0448\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0438, \u0432 \u0442\u043e \u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u044f \u043a\u0430\u043a H\u2011020 \u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044c \u0443\u0441\u043f\u0435\u0448\u043d\u043e\u0439, \u0430 H\u2011021 \u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044c \u0441\u043b\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0439.\n","es":"Esta semana el mercado muestra un optimismo modesto: el carry de financiaci\u00f3n de BTC es +1.8\u202f% (bajo), el \u00edndice Crypto Fear & Greed est\u00e1 en 63 (codicia), y BTC cotiza 14.2\u202f% por encima de su promedio de 200\u202fd\u00edas mientras su volatilidad realizada de 30\u202fd\u00edas es 33\u202f% (calma). El suministro de USDT\u202f+\u202fUSDC cay\u00f3 1.02\u202f% en 30\u202fd\u00edas, y el 62\u202f% de las monedas est\u00e1n por encima de sus promedios de 200\u202fd\u00edas.\n\n- BTC net flow to exchanges rose by 1,173\u202fBTC in the last 7\u202fdays, triggering H\u2011020 \u201cBTC in\u201d (rule\u202f=\u202f1).  \n- H\u2011020 passed: BTC out\u2011of\u2011market rule beat buy\u2011and\u2011hold with Sharpe\u202f0.83 vs\u202f0.50 and CAGR\u202f+31% vs\u202f+13% (in\u2011market\u202f83%).  \n- H\u2011021 (ETH out\u2011of\u2011market) was weak: Sharpe\u202f0.40 vs\u202f0.22, CAGR\u202f+7% vs\u202f\u20118%, in\u2011market\u202f80%.  \n- H\u2011024 (relative\u2011strength rotation) failed: since\u202f2020 Sharpe\u202f0.76 vs\u202f1.13 hold, CAGR\u202f+32% vs\u202f+76%; since\u202f2022 Sharpe\u202f0.44 vs\u202f0.41, CAGR\u202f+11% vs\u202f+6%.  \n- H\u2011025 (plain momentum) failed: since\u202f2020 Sharpe\u202f0.91 vs\u202f1.13, CAGR\u202f+51% vs\u202f+76%; since\u202f2022 Sharpe\u202f0.19 vs\u202f0.41, CAGR\u202f\u201110% vs\u202f+6%.  \n- H\u2011026 (short\u2011term reversal) failed: since\u202f2020 Sharpe\u202f0.17 vs\u202f1.13, CAGR\u202f\u201122% vs\u202f+76%; since\u202f2022 Sharpe\u202f\u20110.82 vs\u202f0.41, CAGR\u202f\u201154% vs\u202f+6%.\n\nThe tested hypotheses H\u2011024, H\u2011025 and H\u2011026 all remained unsuccessful, while H\u2011020 stayed successful and H\u2011021 stayed weak.\n","pt":"Esta semana o mercado mostra otimismo modesto: o carry de financiamento do BTC est\u00e1 em +1,8\u202f% (baixo), o \u00edndice Crypto Fear & Greed est\u00e1 em 63 (gan\u00e2ncia), e o BTC negocia 14,2\u202f% acima de sua m\u00e9dia de 200\u202fdias enquanto sua volatilidade realizada de 30\u202fdias \u00e9 de 33\u202f% (calmo). O suprimento de USDT\u202f+\u202fUSDC caiu 1,02\u202f% em 30\u202fdias, e 62\u202f% das moedas est\u00e3o acima de suas m\u00e9dias de 200\u202fdias.\n\n- O fluxo l\u00edquido de BTC para exchanges subiu 1.173\u202fBTC nos \u00faltimos 7\u202fdias, acionando H\u2011020 \u201cBTC in\u201d (regra\u202f=\u202f1).  \n- H\u2011020 passou: regra de BTC fora\u2011do\u2011mercado superou compra\u2011e\u2011segura com Sharpe\u202f0,83 vs\u202f0,50 e CAGR\u202f+31\u202f% vs\u202f+13\u202f% (no\u2011mercado\u202f83\u202f%).  \n- H\u2011021 (ETH fora\u2011do\u2011mercado) foi fraca: Sharpe\u202f0,40 vs\u202f0,22, CAGR\u202f+7\u202f% vs\u202f\u20118\u202f%, no\u2011mercado\u202f80\u202f%.  \n- H\u2011024 (rota\u00e7\u00e3o de for\u00e7a relativa) falhou: desde\u202f2020 Sharpe\u202f0,76 vs\u202f1,13 hold, CAGR\u202f+32\u202f% vs\u202f+76\u202f%; desde\u202f2022 Sharpe\u202f0,44 vs\u202f0,41, CAGR\u202f+11\u202f% vs\u202f+6\u202f%.  \n- H\u2011025 (momento simples) falhou: desde\u202f2020 Sharpe\u202f0,91 vs\u202f1,13, CAGR\u202f+51\u202f% vs\u202f+76\u202f%; desde\u202f2022 Sharpe\u202f0,19 vs\u202f0,41, CAGR\u202f\u201110\u202f% vs\u202f+6\u202f%.  \n- H\u2011026 (revers\u00e3o de curto prazo) falhou: desde\u202f2020 Sharpe\u202f0,17 vs\u202f1,13, CAGR\u202f\u201122\u202f% vs\u202f+76\u202f%; desde\u202f2022 Sharpe\u202f\u20110,82 vs\u202f0,41, CAGR\u202f\u201154\u202f% vs\u202f+6\u202f%.\n\nAs hip\u00f3teses testadas H\u2011024, H\u2011025 e H\u2011026 permaneceram malsucedidas, enquanto H\u2011020 permaneceu bem\u2011sucedida e H\u2011021 permaneceu fraca.\n","tr":"Bu hafta piyasa m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir iyimserlik g\u00f6steriyor: BTC fonlama ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 +%1.8 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck), Kripto Korku & A\u00e7g\u00f6zl\u00fcl\u00fck indeksi 63 (a\u00e7g\u00f6zl\u00fcl\u00fck) seviyesinde ve BTC, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n %14.2 \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen volatilitesi %33 (sakin). USDT\u202f+\u202fUSDC arz\u0131 30\u202fg\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1.02 azald\u0131 ve coinlerin %62'si 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerindedir.\n\n- BTC net ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, son 7\u202fg\u00fcnde borsalara 1,173\u202fBTC artarak H\u2011020 \u201cBTC in\u201d (kural\u202f=\u202f1) tetikledi.  \n- H\u2011020 ge\u00e7ti: BTC d\u0131\u015f\u2011piyasa kural\u0131, Sharpe\u202f0.83 vs\u202f0.50 ve CAGR\u202f+%31 vs\u202f+%13 (piyasa\u2011i\u00e7inde\u202f%83) ile al\u2011sat stratejisini yendi.  \n- H\u2011021 (ETH d\u0131\u015f\u2011piyasa) zay\u0131ft\u0131: Sharpe\u202f0.40 vs\u202f0.22, CAGR\u202f+%7 vs\u202f\u2011%8, piyasa\u2011i\u00e7inde\u202f%80.  \n- H\u2011024 (g\u00f6receli\u2011g\u00fc\u00e7 rotasyonu) ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu: 2020\u2019den beri Sharpe\u202f0.76 vs\u202f1.13 tutma, CAGR\u202f+%32 vs\u202f+%76; 2022\u2019den beri Sharpe\u202f0.44 vs\u202f0.41, CAGR\u202f+%11 vs\u202f+%6.  \n- H\u2011025 (d\u00fcz momentum) ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu: 2020\u2019den beri Sharpe\u202f0.91 vs\u202f1.13, CAGR\u202f+%51 vs\u202f+%76; 2022\u2019den beri Sharpe\u202f0.19 vs\u202f0.41, CAGR\u202f\u2011%10 vs\u202f+%6.  \n- H\u2011026 (k\u0131sa\u2011vadeli tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f) ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu: 2020\u2019den beri Sharpe\u202f0.17 vs\u202f1.13, CAGR\u202f\u2011%22 vs\u202f+%76; 2022\u2019den beri Sharpe\u202f\u20110.82 vs\u202f0.41, CAGR\u202f\u2011%54 vs\u202f+%6.\n\nTest edilen hipotezler H\u2011024, H\u2011025 ve H\u2011026 ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z kald\u0131, H\u2011020 ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131, H\u2011021 ise zay\u0131f olarak kald\u0131.\n","vi":"Tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 l\u1ea1c quan khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n: BTC funding carry l\u00e0 +1.8% (th\u1ea5p), ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Crypto Fear & Greed \u1edf m\u1ee9c 63 (tham lam), v\u00e0 BTC giao d\u1ecbch cao h\u01a1n 14.2% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 200\u2011ng\u00e0y trong khi \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf 30\u2011ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 33% (b\u00ecnh t\u0129nh). Cung USDT\u202f+\u202fUSDC gi\u1ea3m 1.02% trong 30\u202fng\u00e0y, v\u00e0 62% c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng coin n\u1eb1m tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 200\u2011ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang.\n\n- BTC net flow to exchanges rose by 1,173\u202fBTC in the last 7\u202fdays, triggering H\u2011020 \u201cBTC in\u201d (rule\u202f=\u202f1).  \n- H\u2011020 passed: BTC out\u2011of\u2011market rule beat buy\u2011and\u2011hold with Sharpe\u202f0.83 vs\u202f0.50 and CAGR\u202f+31% vs\u202f+13% (in\u2011market\u202f83%).  \n- H\u2011021 (ETH out\u2011of\u2011market) was weak: Sharpe\u202f0.40 vs\u202f0.22, CAGR\u202f+7% vs\u202f\u20118%, in\u2011market\u202f80%.  \n- H\u2011024 (relative\u2011strength rotation) failed: since\u202f2020 Sharpe\u202f0.76 vs\u202f1.13 hold, CAGR\u202f+32% vs\u202f+76%; since\u202f2022 Sharpe\u202f0.44 vs\u202f0.41, CAGR\u202f+11% vs\u202f+6%.  \n- H\u2011025 (plain momentum) failed: since\u202f2020 Sharpe\u202f0.91 vs\u202f1.13, CAGR\u202f+51% vs\u202f+76%; since\u202f2022 Sharpe\u202f0.19 vs\u202f0.41, CAGR\u202f\u201110% vs\u202f+6%.  \n- H\u2011026 (short\u2011term reversal) failed: since\u202f2020 Sharpe\u202f0.17 vs\u202f1.13, CAGR\u202f\u201122% vs\u202f+76%; since\u202f2022 Sharpe\u202f\u20110.82 vs\u202f0.41, CAGR\u202f\u201154% vs\u202f+6%.\n\nThe tested hypotheses H\u2011024, H\u2011025 and H\u2011026 all remained unsuccessful, while H\u2011020 stayed successful and H\u2011021 stayed weak.\n","zh":"\u672c\u5468\u5e02\u573a\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u9002\u5ea6\u4e50\u89c2\uff1aBTC \u878d\u8d44\u5229\u5dee\u4e3a +1.8%\uff08\u4f4e\uff09\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u6050\u60e7\u4e0e\u8d2a\u5a6a\u6307\u6570\u4e3a 63\uff08\u8d2a\u5a6a\uff09\uff0cBTC \u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176 200\u2011\u65e5\u5747\u7ebf 14.2%\uff0c\u800c\u5176 30\u2011\u65e5\u5b9e\u73b0\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u4e3a 33%\uff08\u5e73\u7a33\uff09\u3002USDT\u202f+\u202fUSDC \u4f9b\u5e94\u5728 30\u202f\u5929\u5185\u4e0b\u964d 1.02%\uff0c\u4e14 62% \u7684\u5e01\u79cd\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176 200\u2011\u65e5\u5747\u7ebf\u3002\n\n- BTC \u51c0\u6d41\u5165\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86 1,173\u202fBTC\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb 7\u202f\u5929\u89e6\u53d1 H\u2011020 \u201cBTC in\u201d\uff08\u89c4\u5219\u202f=\u202f1\uff09\u3002  \n- H\u2011020 \u901a\u8fc7\uff1aBTC \u573a\u5916\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u590f\u666e\u6bd4\u7387\u4e3a 0.83 \u5bf9\u6bd4 0.50\uff0c\u590d\u5408\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e3a +31% \u5bf9\u6bd4 +13%\uff08\u573a\u5185\u202f83%\uff09\u3002  \n- H\u2011021\uff08ETH \u573a\u5916\uff09\u8868\u73b0\u75b2\u5f31\uff1a\u590f\u666e\u6bd4\u7387 0.40 \u5bf9\u6bd4 0.22\uff0c\u590d\u5408\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387 +7% \u5bf9\u6bd4 \u20118%\uff0c\u573a\u5185\u202f80%\u3002  \n- H\u2011024\uff08\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u5ea6\u8f6e\u52a8\uff09\u5931\u8d25\uff1a\u81ea 2020 \u5e74\u8d77\u590f\u666e\u6bd4\u7387 0.76 \u5bf9\u6bd4 1.13 \u6301\u6709\uff0c\u590d\u5408\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387 +32% \u5bf9\u6bd4 +76%\uff1b\u81ea 2022 \u5e74\u8d77\u590f\u666e\u6bd4\u7387 0.44 \u5bf9\u6bd4 0.41\uff0c\u590d\u5408\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387 +11% \u5bf9\u6bd4 +6%\u3002  \n- H\u2011025\uff08\u7eaf\u52a8\u91cf\uff09\u5931\u8d25\uff1a\u81ea 2020 \u5e74\u8d77\u590f\u666e\u6bd4\u7387 0.91 \u5bf9\u6bd4 1.13\uff0c\u590d\u5408\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387 +51% \u5bf9\u6bd4 +76%\uff1b\u81ea 2022 \u5e74\u8d77\u590f\u666e\u6bd4\u7387 0.19 \u5bf9\u6bd4 0.41\uff0c\u590d\u5408\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387 \u201110% \u5bf9\u6bd4 +6%\u3002  \n- H\u2011026\uff08\u77ed\u671f\u53cd\u8f6c\uff09\u5931\u8d25\uff1a\u81ea 2020 \u5e74\u8d77\u590f\u666e\u6bd4\u7387 0.17 \u5bf9\u6bd4 1.13\uff0c\u590d\u5408\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387 \u201122% \u5bf9\u6bd4 +76%\uff1b\u81ea 2022 \u5e74\u8d77\u590f\u666e\u6bd4\u7387 \u20110.82 \u5bf9\u6bd4 0.41\uff0c\u590d\u5408\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387 \u201154% \u5bf9\u6bd4 +6%\u3002\n\n\u5df2\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u5047\u8bbe H\u2011024\u3001H\u2011025 \u548c H\u2011026 \u5747\u672a\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u800c H\u2011020 \u4fdd\u6301\u6210\u529f\uff0cH\u2011021 \u4fdd\u6301\u5f31\u52bf\u3002\n"}}],"forecast":{"history":{"direction":{"id":"H-027","verdict":"FAIL","pooled":{"symbol":"ALL","period":"oos","p":0.011994,"win":false,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":21612,"bss":-0.008887,"brier":0.2495,"brier_ref":0.247302,"hits":0.527947},"data_end":"2026-10-26"},"risk":{"id":"H-028","verdict":"PASS","pooled":{"symbol":"ALL","period":"oos","p":0.0005,"win":true,"start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-10-26","days":21612,"bss":0.038277,"brier":0.241436,"brier_ref":0.251045,"hits":0.576532},"data_end":"2026-10-26"}},"today":{"date":"2026-10-29","published":"2026-10-29T04:37:26Z","decision_date":"2026-10-28","on_time":true,"rows":[{"symbol":"BTCUSDT","p_direction":0.4591,"p_risk":0.4128,"w_exec":0.4489,"w_prev":0.4489,"variants":{"H-031":0.4034}},{"symbol":"ETHUSDT","p_direction":0.4612,"p_risk":0.3943,"w_exec":0.4502,"w_prev":0.4502,"variants":{"H-031":0.4172}},{"symbol":"SOLUSDT","p_direction":0.4497,"p_risk":0.3677,"w_exec":0.4388,"w_prev":0.4388,"variants":{"H-031":0.4003}},{"symbol":"BNBUSDT","p_direction":0.4399,"p_risk":0.4525,"w_exec":0.4361,"w_prev":0.4361,"variants":{"H-031":0.4088}},{"symbol":"XRPUSDT","p_direction":0.4609,"p_risk":0.4391,"w_exec":0.4425,"w_prev":0.4425,"variants":{"H-031":0.4095}},{"symbol":"ADAUSDT","p_direction":0.4535,"p_risk":0.4425,"w_exec":0.4431,"w_prev":0.4431,"variants":{"H-031":0.4047}},{"symbol":"LTCUSDT","p_direction":0.436,"p_risk":0.5125,"w_exec":0.4347,"w_prev":0.4347,"variants":{"H-031":0.4047}},{"symbol":"LINKUSDT","p_direction":0.4387,"p_risk":0.4306,"w_exec":0.4321,"w_prev":0.4321,"variants":{"H-031":0.4099}},{"symbol":"DOGEUSDT","p_direction":0.4503,"p_risk":0.4292,"w_exec":0.4344,"w_prev":0.4344,"variants":{"H-031":0.3984}},{"symbol":"XLMUSDT","p_direction":0.449,"p_risk":0.4253,"w_exec":0.4444,"w_prev":0.4444,"variants":{"H-031":0.4041}},{"symbol":"TRXUSDT","p_direction":0.4811,"p_risk":0.3569,"w_exec":0.4506,"w_prev":0.4506,"variants":{"H-031":0.4313}},{"symbol":"EVERUSDT","p_direction":0.4795,"p_risk":0.585,"w_exec":0.4649,"w_prev":0.4649,"variants":{"H-031":0.3535}},{"symbol":"GRAMUSDT","p_direction":0.4673,"p_risk":0.5128,"w_exec":0.4516,"w_prev":0.4516,"variants":{"H-031":0.3745}}]},"live":{},"start":"2026-10-29","test_after":"2027-11-01"}}