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H-032: Carteiras «espertas» de EVER na Gate.io: depósitos das carteiras escolhidas em 2022–2023 antecipam quedas de 7 dias melhor que carteiras aleatórias

Reprovada  Tipo: fluxos · Status: rejeitada

Depósitos de “dinheiro inteligente” em EVER preveem quedas? A ideia não venceu simplesmente comprar a moeda e segurar. Ela foi rejeitada.

Resultado

Os detalhes técnicos são gerados pelo motor e mostrados em inglês.

17 smart wallets of 85; from 2024-01-01 their 33 deposits were followed by a mean 7-day log return of -0.0152 vs -0.0378 for random matched wallets (p = 0.931, need p < 0.05); exit rule Sharpe -0.19 vs hold -0.08

Sharpe: retorno por unidade de risco (maior é melhor). CAGR: crescimento anual médio. Drawdown máximo: pior queda a partir de um pico. p-valor: chance de o resultado ser sorte (menor é melhor). As colunas “Segurar” são comprar e segurar o mesmo ativo nos mesmos dias. Glossário

Por que poderia funcionar

Idea by F1DevBin: wallets that move EVER to an exchange before it falls may know something, and if they do, the same wallets should keep doing it. Data: Gate.io's Everscale hot wallet (found 2026-10-28 from a withdrawal to the owner's wallet; ~70 M EVER, active since 2021-10). Users send EVER to personal deposit addresses that Gate sweeps into the hot wallet; a deposit address is a sender to the hot wallet that forwarded at least 90 % of its outflow there, and a 'wallet' is whoever sent EVER to such an address (crl data everscale, public GraphQL, addresses stored only as short SHA-256 ids; the owner's addresses are excluded when the data is built; transfers from Gate's own addresses are dropped). An event is a wallet's transfer of at least 10 EVER into a deposit address that had already been swept before it (so the address was knowable as Gate's at that moment); transfers within 7 days of the wallet's previous event join it; wallets with more than 100 transfers in a calendar month of the selection period are services and are dropped. Outcome: log return of EVER (Gate.io daily closes) from the close of the event's UTC day to the close 7 days later. Selection 2022-01-01 to 2023-12-24 (the last 7-day window ends before 2024, so no later price is used): wallets with 5+ events; the 20 % with the lowest mean outcome are 'smart' (need 25+ eligible wallets). Test from 2024-01-01: the mean outcome of the smart wallets' events (need 30+) against 1000 random sets of eligible wallets matched on their number of selection events; passes if p < 0.05 (one-sided: as low or lower). Also reported: holding EVER but staying out for 7 days after any smart-wallet event, decided at that day's close, with Gate's 0.2 % fee plus 0.2 % slippage per side, against holding. EVER only: this wallet-level data exists only on Everscale (an exception to the all-coins rule); GRAM on TON is a separate future hypothesis. Expectation written before any result: the 2022-23 'smart' wallets were mostly lucky and will not beat random wallets from 2024.

Histórico de veredictos

• 2026-10-28: Reprovada (este motor, dados até 2026-10-27)

Especificação pré-registrada

kind: wallet_deposits
asset: EVERUSDT
universe:
- EVERUSDT
hot_wallet: 0:3addd84bf73267312a477049fd9b8db761bf39c585c150f8e6f9451347af2b6c
dataset: ever_gate_deposits.csv.gz
filters:
  min_value: 10
  swept_before: true
  merge_days: 7
  max_monthly: 100
selection:
  start: '2022-01-01'
  end: '2023-12-24'
  min_events: 5
  horizon_days: 7
  smart_share: 0.2
  min_wallets: 25
test:
  start: '2024-01-01'
  min_events: 30
'null':
  method: random_wallets_matched
  n: 1000
  buckets:
  - 5
  - 6
  - 8
  - 11
  - 16
  - 26
significance:
  alpha: 0.05
rule:
  exit_days: 7
  fee: 0.002
  slippage: 0.002