H-033: Gate.io 上的 GRAM“聪明钱包”：2023–2024 年选出的钱包大额充值后 7 天的下跌比随机钱包更可预测

未通过类别: 资金流 · 状态: 已否定

“聪明钱”的 GRAM 充值能预测下跌吗？ 该想法没有跑赢简单地买入并持有，已被否定。

结果

技术细节由引擎生成，以英文显示。

36 smart wallets of 183; from 2025-01-01 their 144 deposits were followed by a mean 7-day log return of -0.0050 vs -0.0196 for random matched wallets (p = 0.768, need p < 0.05); exit rule Sharpe -1.80 vs hold -0.71

Sharpe：单位风险的收益（越高越好）。CAGR：年均增长率。最大回撤：从峰值的最大跌幅。p 值：结果来自运气的概率（越低越好）。“持有”列为同一资产、同一时间段的买入持有结果。术语

选择期 2023-03-13 – 2024-12-24	合格钱包 183 个，“聪明”钱包 36 个，事件 1565 个
充值后 7 天平均走势（选择期）：“聪明” / 全部	-3.85% / +1.34%
检验期自 2025-01-01	12 个“聪明”钱包的 144 个事件
充值后 7 天平均走势（检验期）：“聪明” / 随机	-0.50% / -1.94%
p（按事件数匹配的随机钱包）	0.768
退出规则对比持有：Sharpe	-1.80 / -0.71
退出规则对比持有：CAGR	-38.2% / -56.1%
退出规则对比持有：最大回撤	-59.1% / -79.3%
退出规则：持币时间	16%

为什么可能有效

Same question as H-032 on Gram (GRAM, prev. Toncoin), asked for by F1DevBin after H-032 failed. On TON, Gate.io takes deposits on one shared wallet (0:b496b8f7...60bc281f, labelled 'Gate.io' and whitelisted by tonapi, active since 2022-11-04): users send GRAM straight to it with their Gate account number as a text comment, so there are no sweeps and a 'wallet' is the sending address (crl data ton: public toncenter v3 index, text-comment transfers that did not bounce, addresses stored only as short SHA-256 ids; the deposit wallet itself and other Gate.io-labelled accounts are dropped, as are the owner's addresses if he names any). Differences from H-032, all decided before any outcome: windows follow GRAM's price history on Gate.io (from 2023-03-13): selection 2023-03-13 to 2024-12-24, test from 2025-01-01; no sweep rule. Size: F1DevBin found 10 coins too small to matter, so an event is a transfer worth at least $500 at the close of its day (when the event is decided). The size was picked by a rule written down before the data were counted (scripts/h033_threshold.py): the highest of $10 000, $5 000, $1 000, $500 with at least 75 wallets having 5+ selection events and at least 300 test-period events for them; counts only, no return was computed ($10 000: 81 wallets and 109 test-period events; $5 000: 88 and 135; $1 000: 137 and 219; $500: 183 and 342, so $500). Services: wallets with more than 100 transfers of 1+ GRAM in a calendar month of the selection period. Everything else as in H-032: events of one wallet within 7 days join; outcome = log return of GRAM (Gate.io daily closes) from the close of the event's day to 7 days later; 'smart' = lowest 20 % mean outcome among wallets with 5+ selection events (need 25+); test: their events' mean outcome (need 30+) vs 1000 random sets matched on selection-event counts, pass if p < 0.05 (one-sided); exit rule with Gate's 0.2 % fee + 0.2 % slippage vs holding. GRAM only: wallet-level data is per chain (exception to the all-coins rule). Expectation written before any result: like H-032, the 'smart' wallets were lucky, not informed.

结论历史

2026-10-28: 未通过 (本引擎，数据截至 2026-10-27)

预注册规范

kind: wallet_deposits
asset: GRAMUSDT
universe:
- GRAMUSDT
deposit_wallet: 0:b496b8f73b469ff06a2d89e62c4d70a103fc228c821537b49dff092060bc281f
dataset: gram_gate_deposits.csv.gz
filters:
  min_value: 1
  min_usd: 500
  swept_before: false
  merge_days: 7
  max_monthly: 100
selection:
  start: '2023-03-13'
  end: '2024-12-24'
  min_events: 5
  horizon_days: 7
  smart_share: 0.2
  min_wallets: 25
test:
  start: '2025-01-01'
  min_events: 30
'null':
  method: random_wallets_matched
  n: 1000
  buckets:
  - 5
  - 6
  - 8
  - 11
  - 16
  - 26
significance:
  alpha: 0.05
rule:
  exit_days: 7
  fee: 0.002
  slippage: 0.002