H-033: Carteiras «espertas» de GRAM na Gate.io: depósitos grandes das carteiras escolhidas em 2023–2024 antecipam quedas de 7 dias melhor que carteiras aleatórias
Reprovada Tipo: fluxos · Status: rejeitada
Depósitos de “dinheiro inteligente” em GRAM preveem quedas? A ideia não venceu simplesmente comprar a moeda e segurar. Ela foi rejeitada.
Resultado
36 smart wallets of 183; from 2025-01-01 their 144 deposits were followed by a mean 7-day log return of -0.0050 vs -0.0196 for random matched wallets (p = 0.768, need p < 0.05); exit rule Sharpe -1.80 vs hold -0.71
| Seleção 2023-03-13 – 2024-12-24 | 183 carteiras elegíveis, 36 «espertas», 1565 eventos |
|---|---|
| Movimento médio em 7 dias após os depósitos (seleção): «espertas» / todas | -3.85% / +1.34% |
| Teste desde 2025-01-01 | 144 eventos de 12 carteiras «espertas» |
| Movimento médio em 7 dias após os depósitos (teste): «espertas» / aleatórias | -0.50% / -1.94% |
| p (carteiras aleatórias pareadas) | 0.768 |
| Regra de saída contra segurar: Sharpe | -1.80 / -0.71 |
| Regra de saída contra segurar: CAGR | -38.2% / -56.1% |
| Regra de saída contra segurar: queda máxima | -59.1% / -79.3% |
| Regra de saída: tempo na moeda | 16% |
Por que poderia funcionar
Same question as H-032 on Gram (GRAM, prev. Toncoin), asked for by F1DevBin after H-032 failed. On TON, Gate.io takes deposits on one shared wallet (0:b496b8f7...60bc281f, labelled 'Gate.io' and whitelisted by tonapi, active since 2022-11-04): users send GRAM straight to it with their Gate account number as a text comment, so there are no sweeps and a 'wallet' is the sending address (crl data ton: public toncenter v3 index, text-comment transfers that did not bounce, addresses stored only as short SHA-256 ids; the deposit wallet itself and other Gate.io-labelled accounts are dropped, as are the owner's addresses if he names any). Differences from H-032, all decided before any outcome: windows follow GRAM's price history on Gate.io (from 2023-03-13): selection 2023-03-13 to 2024-12-24, test from 2025-01-01; no sweep rule. Size: F1DevBin found 10 coins too small to matter, so an event is a transfer worth at least $500 at the close of its day (when the event is decided). The size was picked by a rule written down before the data were counted (scripts/h033_threshold.py): the highest of $10 000, $5 000, $1 000, $500 with at least 75 wallets having 5+ selection events and at least 300 test-period events for them; counts only, no return was computed ($10 000: 81 wallets and 109 test-period events; $5 000: 88 and 135; $1 000: 137 and 219; $500: 183 and 342, so $500). Services: wallets with more than 100 transfers of 1+ GRAM in a calendar month of the selection period. Everything else as in H-032: events of one wallet within 7 days join; outcome = log return of GRAM (Gate.io daily closes) from the close of the event's day to 7 days later; 'smart' = lowest 20 % mean outcome among wallets with 5+ selection events (need 25+); test: their events' mean outcome (need 30+) vs 1000 random sets matched on selection-event counts, pass if p < 0.05 (one-sided); exit rule with Gate's 0.2 % fee + 0.2 % slippage vs holding. GRAM only: wallet-level data is per chain (exception to the all-coins rule). Expectation written before any result: like H-032, the 'smart' wallets were lucky, not informed.
Histórico de veredictos
- 2026-10-28: Reprovada (este motor, dados até 2026-10-27)
Especificação pré-registrada
kind: wallet_deposits
asset: GRAMUSDT
universe:
- GRAMUSDT
deposit_wallet: 0:b496b8f73b469ff06a2d89e62c4d70a103fc228c821537b49dff092060bc281f
dataset: gram_gate_deposits.csv.gz
filters:
min_value: 1
min_usd: 500
swept_before: false
merge_days: 7
max_monthly: 100
selection:
start: '2023-03-13'
end: '2024-12-24'
min_events: 5
horizon_days: 7
smart_share: 0.2
min_wallets: 25
test:
start: '2025-01-01'
min_events: 30
'null':
method: random_wallets_matched
n: 1000
buckets:
- 5
- 6
- 8
- 11
- 16
- 26
significance:
alpha: 0.05
rule:
exit_days: 7
fee: 0.002
slippage: 0.002