Open research · updated 2026-10-29 04:37 UTC

Can a simple rule beat “buy and hold”?

We tested 33 trading ideas on real data, with fees and on years that were not used to pick them. 2 passed.

each block is one hypothesis; its height shows the verdict

Market today

Mixed picture: the signals disagree, there is no clear direction.

Pointing up: 2 · pointing down: 1 · neutral: 3

Bitcoin is 11.3% above its 200-day average: the long-term trend is up.
Money is leaving: the supply of stablecoins fell 2.2% in 30 days.
The only rule that passed its test (H-020) is in the market: no unusual wave of bitcoin being sent to exchanges.

What passed the test

Pass now: in the market

Met the bar set before testing (2 of 33 ideas have). It is not a promise of profit: it is being re-checked on new data.

14 of 365 daystest on 2027-10-15

Pass

Met the bar set before testing (2 of 33 ideas have). It is not a promise of profit: it is being re-checked on new data.

This forecasts how big the next day's move will be, not its direction: on its own it does not beat holding, it helps judge risk.

0 of 368 daystest on 2027-11-01

Today's model forecast for 13 coins (2026-10-29)Open →

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