About the project
Every trading idea is written down, locked with a hash and only then tested on real market data, out of sample and against a statistical null. Scheduled agents refresh the data daily, watch market conditions and re-test old ideas as new data arrives. 2 of 33 hypotheses pass their pre-registered test.
How it runs
Every morning, as soon as all sources have published yesterday's data (usually 03:00–07:00 UTC), the agents download and check the data, recompute the market readings and rebuild this site. Once a week they also re-test the hypotheses that are due, check every rule on every coin and write the weekly digest.
Methodology
- Pre-registration. A study's specification is hashed (SHA-256) before it is run. Any later change breaks the check, so parameters cannot be tuned after seeing results.
- No look-ahead. All times are UTC; a decision at the daily close is applied to the next day; external data is lagged by its publication delay.
- Out of sample. Rules are chosen on 2018–2021 and judged on 2022 onwards, with trading fees.
- Against a null. Bootstrap and circular-shift tests with Bonferroni correction, then confirmation on eight coins that were not used to design the rule.
Full write-up (English): METHODOLOGY.md · FINDINGS.md
Data freshness
| Series | From | Last day | Days behind |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADAUSDT | 2018-04-17 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| BNBUSDT | 2017-11-06 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| BTCUSDT | 2017-08-17 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| DOGEUSDT | 2019-07-05 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| ETHUSDT | 2017-08-17 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| EVERUSDT | 2022-03-18 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| GRAMUSDT | 2023-03-13 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| LINKUSDT | 2019-01-16 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| LTCUSDT | 2017-12-13 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| SOLUSDT | 2020-08-11 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| TRXUSDT | 2018-06-11 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| XLMUSDT | 2018-05-31 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| XRPUSDT | 2018-05-04 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| funding BTCUSDT | 2020-01-01 | 2026-10-29 | 0 |
| stablecoins USDT+USDC | 2017-11-29 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| fear & greed | 2018-02-01 | 2026-10-28 | 1 |
| BTC ETF flows | 2024-01-11 | 2026-10-26 | 3 |
Code, data and settings
- Setup
- machine-readable data (data.json)
- GitHub · MIT License