Weekly digest: the week in plain words
Every Monday a language model retells the week's reports from this dashboard (market regime, data quality, test results) for beginners. It may only use numbers from the reports and never gives trading advice, but it can still make mistakes: the tables on the dashboard are the source of truth.
Week 2026-W43: 2026-10-19 – 2026-10-25
The market shows modest optimism: BTC funding carry is +2.2% (low), the Crypto Fear & Greed index sits at 50 (neutral), and BTC is 9.8% above its 200‑day average while volatility is calm at 25% annualised.
- USDT+USDC supply fell 1.96% over 30 days, indicating contraction.
- BTC net flow to exchanges was –991 BTC in the past week, suggesting withdrawals.
- Market breadth shows 54 % of coins above their 200‑day average, a mixed signal.
- Everscale (EVER) is 25.8 % below its 50‑day average.
- All three tested hypotheses (H‑024 relative‑strength rotation, H‑025 plain momentum rotation, H‑026 short‑term reversal) failed to beat the equal‑weight basket for both since‑2020 and since‑2022 periods.
No tested hypothesis improved; the results remain unchanged.
Written by openai/gpt-oss-120b from the reports of that week.
Week 2026-W42: 2026-10-14 – 2026-10-20
This week the market shows modest optimism: BTC funding carry is +1.8% (low), the Crypto Fear & Greed index sits at 63 (greed), and BTC trades 14.2% above its 200‑day average while its 30‑day realised volatility is 33% (calm). USDT + USDC supply fell 1.02% over 30 days, and 62% of coins are above their 200‑day averages.
- BTC net flow to exchanges rose by 1,173 BTC in the last 7 days, triggering H‑020 “BTC in” (rule = 1).
- H‑020 passed: BTC out‑of‑market rule beat buy‑and‑hold with Sharpe 0.83 vs 0.50 and CAGR +31% vs +13% (in‑market 83%).
- H‑021 (ETH out‑of‑market) was weak: Sharpe 0.40 vs 0.22, CAGR +7% vs ‑8%, in‑market 80%.
- H‑024 (relative‑strength rotation) failed: since 2020 Sharpe 0.76 vs 1.13 hold, CAGR +32% vs +76%; since 2022 Sharpe 0.44 vs 0.41, CAGR +11% vs +6%.
- H‑025 (plain momentum) failed: since 2020 Sharpe 0.91 vs 1.13, CAGR +51% vs +76%; since 2022 Sharpe 0.19 vs 0.41, CAGR ‑10% vs +6%.
- H‑026 (short‑term reversal) failed: since 2020 Sharpe 0.17 vs 1.13, CAGR ‑22% vs +76%; since 2022 Sharpe ‑0.82 vs 0.41, CAGR ‑54% vs +6%.
The tested hypotheses H‑024, H‑025 and H‑026 all remained unsuccessful, while H‑020 stayed successful and H‑021 stayed weak.
Written by openai/gpt-oss-120b from the reports of that week.
GitHub: reports/digest