Today's model forecast
Every morning, before 12:00 UTC, one model gives two probabilities for each of our 13 coins. It is a research experiment scored in public: not advice, and nobody trades on it.
| Coin | Chance of rising above fees | Chance of rising, improved model (H-031) | Chance of a bigger move than usual | Paper portfolio: share in the coin | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTCBitcoin | 46% | 40% | 41% | 45% | +0 pp |
| ETHEthereum | 46% | 42% | 39% | 45% | +0 pp |
| SOLSolana | 45% | 40% | 37% | 44% | +0 pp |
| BNBBNB | 44% | 41% | 45% | 44% | +0 pp |
| XRPXRP | 46% | 41% | 44% | 44% | +0 pp |
| ADACardano | 45% | 40% | 44% | 44% | +0 pp |
| LTCLitecoin | 44% | 40% | 51% | 43% | +0 pp |
| LINKChainlink | 44% | 41% | 43% | 43% | +0 pp |
| DOGEDogecoin | 45% | 40% | 43% | 43% | +0 pp |
| XLMStellar | 45% | 40% | 43% | 44% | +0 pp |
| TRXTRON | 48% | 43% | 36% | 45% | +0 pp |
| EVER †Everscale | 48% | 35% | 58% | 46% | +0 pp |
| GRAM †Gram (ex-Toncoin) | 47% | 37% | 51% | 45% | +0 pp |
How the model is doing live
Scored on forecasts published before 12:00 UTC, from noon to noon, since 2026-10-29. A fair verdict needs about a year of data: the first official test is on 2027-11-01.
Live scoring starts once the first forecasts have their next-day prices.
Tested on history (2022 onward)
Walk-forward: every month the model is refitted only on what was already known, fees included.
How it works
- Two questions per coin. Will the next day's return beat the cost of buying and selling? Will the next day's move be bigger than the coin's usual daily move?
- One model for all coins. Inputs: recent returns, distance from the 50- and 200-day averages, volatility, Bitcoin's moves, funding, Fear & Greed, stablecoin supply and exchange flows, each compared with its own past year.
- No hindsight. The model is refitted on the first day of each month and then frozen; every forecast is committed to GitHub before 12:00 UTC, so it cannot be changed after the fact.
- Paper portfolio. The share of $100 held in the coin equals the chance of a rise; it changes only when the share moves by 10 points or more. Fees: 0.1 % per trade on Binance, 0.4 % on Gate.io coins.
- Pre-registered as H-027, H-028 (history) and H-029, H-030 (live).
- Improved model. After the first model failed on history, a second version (H-031) adds a separate base level for each coin and recalibrates the probabilities on a held-out year. It is judged only on forecasts published from 2026-11-01.