Bitcoin vs its 200-day average
BTC closed at $81,344 on 2026-10-28, +11.3% against its 200-day moving average ($73,111). Log scale, daily closes since 2020.
Market · 2026-10-28
What the crypto market looks like today
The readings that decided past verdicts, recomputed every day. This describes the market; it is not a signal to buy or sell.
Mixed picture: the signals disagree, there is no clear direction.
Pointing up: 2 · pointing down: 1 · neutral: 3
- Bitcoin is 11.3% above its 200-day average: the long-term trend is up.
- 7 of 13 coins are above their 200-day average: the market is split.
- Price swings are small (25% a year): a quiet market.
- Mood: 51 of 100, neutral.
- Money is leaving: the supply of stablecoins fell 2.2% in 30 days.
- The only rule that passed its test (H-020) is in the market: no unusual wave of bitcoin being sent to exchanges.
What this means. In a market without direction, trend rules switch in and out often and lose money on fees. Patience matters more than action.
Where is the market going
BTC vs its 200-day average
+11.3%
aboveWhat is this?
How far the price is above (+) or below (−) its average over the last 200 days. Above usually means a long-term uptrend.
Market breadth: coins above their 200-day average
54%
mixedWhat is this?
Share of the 13 coins whose price is above their own 200-day average. High means most of the market is in an uptrend; low means most coins are falling.
How nervous is it
Crypto Fear & Greed index
51
neutralWhat is this?
A 0–100 mood score built from price moves, volatility and social media. Low = fear, high = greed.
BTC volatility (30 days, yearly)
25%
calmWhat is this?
How much the price swings, scaled to a year. 40% means a typical yearly move of about 40% up or down.
Is money coming in
BTC funding carry: yearly yield after costs
+2.6%
lowWhat is this?
What you would earn per year by holding BTC and shorting the same amount of BTC futures, so the price itself does not matter. When most futures traders are long, shorts get paid.
Stablecoin supply growth (30 days)
-2.20%
contractingWhat is this?
How fast the supply of dollar-pegged coins (USDT, USDC) is growing. New stablecoins are often money waiting to buy crypto; shrinking supply means money is leaving.
BTC net flow to exchanges (7 days)
-5,027 BTC
withdrawalsWhat is this?
Bitcoin moved onto exchanges minus bitcoin moved off them over the last 7 days. Plus means net deposits (often read as coming sales), minus means net withdrawals to private wallets.
H-020 rule today: BTC in or out of the market
in the market
in the marketWhat is this?
The only rule that has passed its test. It stays out of Bitcoin while net deposits to exchanges are in their top 20% of the past year. Not a trading signal: it is still being verified (H-022).
Coins
Every coin used in the studies: today's price, trend and volatility. Open a coin to see its chart and what each tested rule says about it today.
| Coin | Price | 7 days | 30 days | vs 200-day average | Volatility (30 d) | From peak | $100 a year ago → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTCBitcoin | $81,344 | -3.3% | -2.6% | +11.3% | 25% | -35% | $72 |
| ETHEthereum | $2,360 | -4.6% | -12.2% | +9.2% | 33% | -51% | $59 |
| SOLSolana | $102.44 | -4.2% | -13.8% | +15.5% | 35% | -61% | $53 |
| BNBBNB | $759.85 | +1.8% | -0.5% | +16.2% | 28% | -42% | $69 |
| XRPXRP | $1.33 | -2.9% | -11.4% | +3.7% | 37% | -63% | $51 |
| ADACardano | $0.2061 | -8.5% | -16.7% | -2.0% | 63% | -93% | $32 |
| LTCLitecoin | $59.25 | -3.8% | -14.4% | +13.6% | 46% | -85% | $61 |
| LINKChainlink | $11.82 | -5.5% | -23.5% | +18.3% | 49% | -77% | $66 |
| DOGEDogecoin | $0.07977 | -2.7% | -15.1% | -7.9% | 43% | -88% | $41 |
| XLMStellar | $0.1724 | -6.2% | -25.8% | -5.9% | 50% | -77% | $54 |
| TRXTRON | $0.3298 | -0.3% | -1.7% | -1.2% | 10% | -24% | $112 |
| EVEREverscale | $0.001019 | -35.1% | -0.4% | -68.7% | 262% | -99.7% | $8 |
| GRAMGram (ex-Toncoin) | $1.24 | -8.6% | -21.1% | -19.8% | 60% | -85% | $55 |
Watched
Everscale (EVER) vs its 50-day average: -24.6% · below
H-018 rule is out of the market.
BTC ETF flows: 3 days behindData sources and freshness →