H-025: Plain momentum rotation: hold the 3 strongest coins over 1 and 3 days

Fail Family: trend · Status: rejected

Does rotating into the 3 strongest coins beat holding? The idea did not beat simply buying the coin and holding it. It is rejected.

Result

since_2020: does not beat the equal-weight basket; since_2022: does not beat the equal-weight basket

Sharpe: return per unit of risk (higher is better). CAGR: average yearly growth. Max drawdown: worst fall from a peak. p-value: chance the result is luck (lower is better). “Hold” columns are buy-and-hold for the same asset and days. Glossary

Asset	Period	Sharpe	Hold Sharpe	CAGR	Hold CAGR	Max drawdown	Hold drawdown	In market	p-value	Beats hold	Counts as win
PORTFOLIO	since_2020 (2020-01-01 → 2026-10-20)	0.91	1.13	+51.2%	+75.6%	-86.7%	-77.0%	100%	0.003	no	no
PORTFOLIO	since_2022 (2022-01-01 → 2026-10-20)	0.19	0.41	-10.4%	+6.5%	-78.3%	-67.0%	100%	0.003	no	no

Equity curves

Growth of 1 unit, log scale, fees included. Only days on which the rule is fully defined are counted.

Asset and period:

Why it might work

Proposed by ChatGPT (via F1DevBin), models A/B of its plan on daily data: the same ranking as H-024 without the overheat and market filters. Tested together with H-024 so the value of the filters can be seen. Benchmark: equal-weight basket of the same coins, rebalanced daily without fees.

Verdict history

2026-10-21: Fail (this engine, data to 2026-10-20)

Pre-registered specification

kind: cross_section
signal:
  type: momentum
  lookbacks:
  - 1
  - 3
select:
  top: 3
fee: 0.001
universe:
- BTCUSDT
- ETHUSDT
- SOLUSDT
- BNBUSDT
- XRPUSDT
- ADAUSDT
- LTCUSDT
- LINKUSDT
- DOGEUSDT
- XLMUSDT
- TRXUSDT
periods:
- name: since_2020
  start: '2020-01-01'
- name: since_2022
  start: '2022-01-01'
significance:
  method: circular_shift
  n: 1000
  alpha: 0.0167
criterion:
  min_wins:
    since_2020: 1
    since_2022: 1
  require_significance: true