Stellar (XLM): price, trend, volatility and tested rules
Daily closes from Binance (UTC). Last day: 2026-10-28.
Diagnosis in plain words
- Downtrend: the price is below both its 50-day and its 200-day average.
- -77% from its highest close (2021-05-11); it would have to grow 326% to get back there.
- Its price swings are 2.0× as large as Bitcoin's.
- It moves mostly together with Bitcoin (correlation 0.75): owning it does not spread risk much.
- None of the 12 tested rules beat simply holding this coin with confidence since 2022-01-01. 6 more looked better than holding, but that could be luck.
Last 12 months
Numbers
| Price | $0.1724 |
|---|---|
| Change, 7 days | -6.2% |
| Change, 30 days | -25.8% |
| Change, 1 year | -45.9% |
| vs 50-day average | -11.3% |
| vs 200-day average | -5.9% |
| Volatility (30 days, yearly) | 50% |
| From the highest close since 2018 ($0.7347 on 2021-05-11) | -76.5% |
| $100 invested a year ago is now | $54 |
| Correlation with Bitcoin (90 days) | 0.75 |
What the tested rules say today
These are today's states of rules from the hypotheses. None of them has passed its test, so they are not buy or sell signals. They show what each rule would do, so you can watch how it behaves.
| Rule | Today | Tested in |
|---|---|---|
| Trend: price above its 50-day average | out of the market | H-005 Fail H-018 Weak |
| 1-week momentum: price higher than 7 days ago | out of the market | H-014 Weak |
| Volatility targeting (30%/yr): share of a full position | 60% | H-012 Weak H-013 Weak |
| Market regime: Bitcoin above its 200-day average | in the market | H-017 Fail H-019 Weak |
| Rule H-010: Stablecoin-growth timing (H-006) beats buy-and-hold on 8 independent coins | out of the market | H-010 Fail |
| Rule H-017: BTC regime filter: hold altcoins only while BTC is above its 200-day average | in the market | H-017 Fail |
Which tested rules worked on this coin
Every tested rule applied to this coin since 2022-01-01, fees included. Exploration, not verdicts.
- ✓works (passed the chance check)
- ↑better than holding, could be luck
- ✗worse than holding
- ·not enough data
- original coin of the hypothesis
| Rule | ✓ | Result | Sharpe: rule / holding | CAGR | From |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H-005Hold while price is above its 50-day average | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.30 / 0.30 | +1% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| H-006Hold while stablecoin growth is above normal | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.36 / 0.30 | +6% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| H-007Leave when BTC funding is unusually high | ✗ | worse than holding | 0.19 / 0.30 | -12% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| H-008Leave when Fear & Greed is 75 or more | ✗ | worse than holding | -0.01 / 0.30 | -24% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| H-009Hold only after net inflows to BTC ETFs | ✗ | worse than holding | 0.35 / 0.58 | +0% / +15% | 2024-01-20 |
| H-012Volatility targeting (30% a year) | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.38 / 0.30 | +7% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| H-0147-day momentum | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.45 / 0.30 | +11% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| H-015Hold only on Mondays | ✗ | worse than holding | -0.45 / 0.30 | -17% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| H-016Hold only around the turn of the month | ✗ | worse than holding | -0.31 / 0.30 | -13% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| H-017Hold only while BTC is above its 200-day average | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.56 / 0.30 | +19% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| H-020Leave on heavy BTC deposits to exchanges | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.47 / 0.30 | +9% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| H-021Leave on heavy ETH deposits to exchanges | ✗ | worse than holding | -0.01 / 0.30 | -22% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
Studies that include this coin
- H-005: SMA50 spot long/flat beats buy-and-hold on 8 independent coins Fail
- H-010: Stablecoin-growth timing (H-006) beats buy-and-hold on 8 independent coins Fail
- H-013: Volatility targeting (30%/yr) beats buy-and-hold on 8 independent coins Weak
- H-017: BTC regime filter: hold altcoins only while BTC is above its 200-day average Fail
- H-024: Relative strength rotation: hold the 3 strongest coins (1- and 3-day), skip extreme one-day jumps, only while BTC is above its 200-day average Fail
- H-025: Plain momentum rotation: hold the 3 strongest coins over 1 and 3 days Fail
- H-026: Short-term reversal: hold the 3 coins that fell the most yesterday Fail
- H-027: A daily model gives every coin's chance of rising above fees better than its base rate Fail
- H-028: A daily model gives every coin's chance of a bigger move than usual better than its base rate Pass
- H-029: Live replication of H-027: daily direction forecasts published before 12:00 UTC —
- H-030: Live replication of H-028: daily forecasts of bigger-than-usual moves, published before 12:00 UTC —
- H-031: Live: an improved daily model (coin-specific levels, recalibrated) gives each coin's chance of rising above fees better than its base rate —