H-008: BTC out of the market when Fear & Greed >= 75
Fail Family: sentiment · Status: rejected
Does the Fear & Greed index help time Bitcoin? The idea did not beat simply buying the coin and holding it. It is rejected.
Result
oos: wins 0/1 (need 1), beats buy-and-hold 0/1
| Asset | Period | Sharpe | Hold Sharpe | CAGR | Hold CAGR | Max drawdown | Hold drawdown | In market | p-value | Beats hold | Counts as win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTCUSDT | oos (2022-01-01 → 2026-10-13) | 0.44 | 0.50 | +10.1% | +13.1% | -66.9% | -66.9% | 93% | 0.566 | no | no |
Equity curves
Growth of 1 unit, log scale, fees included. Only days on which the rule is fully defined are counted.
The same rule on every coin
Exploratory check of this rule on all coins since 2022-01-01. It is not part of the verdict above.
- ✓works (passed the chance check)
- ↑better than holding, could be luck
- ✗worse than holding
- ·not enough data
- original coin of the hypothesis
| Coin | ✓ | Result | Sharpe: rule / holding | CAGR | From |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ✗ | worse than holding | 0.43 / 0.48 | +9% / +12% | 2022-01-01 |
| ETH | ✗ | worse than holding | 0.20 / 0.20 | -8% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| SOL | ✗ | worse than holding | 0.31 / 0.35 | -12% / -10% | 2022-01-01 |
| BNB | ✗ | worse than holding | 0.26 / 0.42 | -0% / +8% | 2022-01-01 |
| XRP | ✗ | worse than holding | 0.16 / 0.51 | -14% / +10% | 2022-01-01 |
| ADA | ✗ | worse than holding | -0.08 / -0.01 | -33% / -32% | 2022-01-01 |
| LTC | ✗ | worse than holding | -0.00 / 0.11 | -21% / -18% | 2022-01-01 |
| LINK | ✗ | worse than holding | 0.28 / 0.30 | -10% / -10% | 2022-01-01 |
| DOGE | ✗ | worse than holding | 0.13 / 0.26 | -20% / -15% | 2022-01-01 |
| XLM | ✗ | worse than holding | -0.01 / 0.30 | -24% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| TRX | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.88 / 0.74 | +33% / +36% | 2022-01-01 |
| EVER | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | -0.11 / -0.15 | -64% / -68% | 2022-03-19 |
| GRAM | ✗ | worse than holding | -0.17 / 0.13 | -30% / -17% | 2023-03-14 |
Why it might work
Extreme greed marks local tops. Ported from F1MEBOT PREREG.md (H3).
Verdict history
- 2026-09-30: Fail (F1MEBOT (2026))
- 2026-10-14: Fail (this engine, data to 2026-10-13)
Pre-registered specification
kind: timing_rule
rule:
type: feature_threshold
feature: fear_greed
threshold: 75
long_when: below
lag: 1
mode: long_flat
fee: 0.001
universe:
- BTCUSDT
periods:
- name: oos
start: '2022-01-01'
significance:
method: circular_shift
n: 2000
alpha: 0.0125
criterion:
min_wins:
oos: 1
require_significance: true