H-019: Everscale (EVER): hold only while BTC is above its 200-day average
Weak Family: trend · Status: weak
Does Bitcoin's 200-day average help time Everscale (EVER)? The idea did a bit better than simply buying and holding, but not by enough to rule out luck. Treat it as unproven.
Result
since_listing: wins 0/1 (need 1), beats buy-and-hold 1/1
| Asset | Period | Sharpe | Hold Sharpe | CAGR | Hold CAGR | Max drawdown | Hold drawdown | In market | p-value | Beats hold | Counts as win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVERUSDT | since_listing (2022-06-01 → 2026-10-13) | 0.12 | -0.17 | -37.0% | -69.5% | -97.6% | -99.7% | 57% | 0.187 | yes | no |
Equity curves
Growth of 1 unit, log scale, fees included. Only days on which the rule is fully defined are counted.
The same rule on every coin
Exploratory check of this rule on all coins since 2022-01-01. It is not part of the verdict above.
- ✓works (passed the chance check)
- ↑better than holding, could be luck
- ✗worse than holding
- ·not enough data
- original coin of the hypothesis
| Coin | ✓ | Result | Sharpe: rule / holding | CAGR | From |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.93 / 0.48 | +29% / +12% | 2022-01-01 |
| ETH | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.63 / 0.20 | +20% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| SOL | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.81 / 0.35 | +37% / -10% | 2022-01-01 |
| BNB | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.68 / 0.42 | +21% / +8% | 2022-01-01 |
| XRP | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.75 / 0.51 | +35% / +10% | 2022-01-01 |
| ADA | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.32 / -0.01 | +0% / -32% | 2022-01-01 |
| LTC | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.26 / 0.11 | -1% / -18% | 2022-01-01 |
| LINK | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.43 / 0.30 | +7% / -10% | 2022-01-01 |
| DOGE | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.39 / 0.26 | +5% / -15% | 2022-01-01 |
| XLM | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.56 / 0.30 | +19% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| TRX | ✗ | worse than holding | 0.54 / 0.74 | +20% / +36% | 2022-01-01 |
| EVER | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.10 / -0.15 | -39% / -68% | 2022-03-19 |
| GRAM | ✗ | worse than holding | -0.15 / 0.13 | -23% / -17% | 2023-03-14 |
Why it might work
Requested by F1DevBin. Same idea as H-017 applied to EVER: small-cap coins depend on the overall crypto regime, which BTC's 200-day trend captures. Gate.io data, fee 0.2% per side; thin liquidity caveat as in H-018.
Verdict history
- 2026-10-14: Weak (this engine, data to 2026-10-13)
Pre-registered specification
kind: timing_rule
rule:
type: asset_above_sma
asset: BTCUSDT
window: 200
mode: long_flat
fee: 0.002
universe:
- EVERUSDT
periods:
- name: since_listing
start: '2022-06-01'
significance:
method: circular_shift
n: 2000
alpha: 0.05
criterion:
min_wins:
since_listing: 1
require_significance: true