H-023: Gram (GRAM, prev. Toncoin): SMA50 trend rule beats buy-and-hold since 2023
Weak Family: trend · Status: weak
Does the 50-day moving average work on Gram (Toncoin)? The idea did a bit better than simply buying and holding, but not by enough to rule out luck. Treat it as unproven.
Result
since_listing: wins 0/1 (need 1), beats buy-and-hold 1/1
| Asset | Period | Sharpe | Hold Sharpe | CAGR | Hold CAGR | Max drawdown | Hold drawdown | In market | p-value | Beats hold | Counts as win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRAMUSDT | since_listing (2023-06-01 → 2026-10-20) | 0.55 | 0.26 | +16.9% | -8.7% | -55.7% | -85.3% | 39% | 0.112 | yes | no |
Equity curves
Growth of 1 unit, log scale, fees included. Only days on which the rule is fully defined are counted.
The same rule on every coin
Exploratory check of this rule on all coins since 2022-01-01. It is not part of the verdict above.
- ✓works (passed the chance check)
- ↑better than holding, could be luck
- ✗worse than holding
- ·not enough data
- original coin of the hypothesis
| Coin | ✓ | Result | Sharpe: rule / holding | CAGR | From |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.75 / 0.48 | +21% / +12% | 2022-01-01 |
| ETH | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.76 / 0.20 | +27% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| SOL | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.81 / 0.35 | +37% / -10% | 2022-01-01 |
| BNB | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.62 / 0.42 | +18% / +8% | 2022-01-01 |
| XRP | ✗ | worse than holding | 0.21 / 0.51 | -2% / +10% | 2022-01-01 |
| ADA | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.02 / -0.01 | -11% / -32% | 2022-01-01 |
| LTC | ✗ | worse than holding | -0.57 / 0.11 | -35% / -18% | 2022-01-01 |
| LINK | ✗ | worse than holding | 0.24 / 0.30 | -3% / -10% | 2022-01-01 |
| DOGE | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.33 / 0.26 | +1% / -15% | 2022-01-01 |
| XLM | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.30 / 0.30 | +1% / -9% | 2022-01-01 |
| TRX | ✗ | worse than holding | 0.26 / 0.74 | +2% / +36% | 2022-01-01 |
| EVER | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.09 / -0.23 | -20% / -72% | 2022-05-07 |
| GRAM | ↑ | better than holding, could be luck | 0.54 / 0.18 | +16% / -14% | 2023-05-02 |
Why it might work
Requested by F1DevBin. GRAM is Toncoin (TON) after its rename; Gate.io spot keeps the full daily history from March 2023 under GRAM_USDT. Same rule as H-018 (EVER) so the two coins can be compared: long while the close is above its 50-day average, flat otherwise. Gate fee 0.2% per side. Turnover is around $2M/day, so unlike EVER the result would be tradable in practice.
Verdict history
- 2026-10-21: Weak (this engine, data to 2026-10-20)
Pre-registered specification
kind: timing_rule
rule:
type: price_above_sma
window: 50
mode: long_flat
fee: 0.002
universe:
- GRAMUSDT
periods:
- name: since_listing
start: '2023-06-01'
significance:
method: circular_shift
n: 2000
alpha: 0.05
criterion:
min_wins:
since_listing: 1
require_significance: true