H-034: Hold coins when 7-day stablecoin growth tops its 2-year 80th percentile

Weak Family: flows · Status: weak

Does a surge in stablecoin supply help time crypto? The idea did a bit better than simply buying and holding, but not by enough to rule out luck. Treat it as unproven.

Result

oos: wins 0/11 (need 1), beats buy-and-hold 10/11

Sharpe: return per unit of risk (higher is better). CAGR: average yearly growth. Max drawdown: worst fall from a peak. p-value: chance the result is luck (lower is better). “Hold” columns are buy-and-hold for the same asset and days. Glossary

Asset	Period	Sharpe	Hold Sharpe	CAGR	Hold CAGR	Max drawdown	Hold drawdown	In market	p-value	Beats hold	Counts as win
BTCUSDT	oos (2022-01-01 → 2026-11-03)	0.53	0.46	+8.8%	+11.2%	-20.9%	-66.9%	15%	0.171	yes	no
ETHUSDT	oos (2022-01-01 → 2026-11-03)	0.50	0.19	+9.9%	-9.4%	-32.0%	-74.0%	15%	0.122	yes	no
SOLUSDT	oos (2022-01-01 → 2026-11-03)	0.42	0.33	+9.1%	-11.7%	-50.6%	-94.6%	15%	0.228	yes	no
BNBUSDT	oos (2022-01-01 → 2026-11-03)	1.07	0.39	+26.5%	+6.6%	-19.8%	-62.9%	15%	0.006	yes	no
XRPUSDT	oos (2022-01-01 → 2026-11-03)	1.10	0.50	+40.1%	+9.3%	-31.3%	-72.0%	15%	0.015	yes	no
ADAUSDT	oos (2022-01-01 → 2026-11-03)	0.72	-0.03	+22.8%	-32.9%	-48.7%	-91.0%	15%	0.046	yes	no
LTCUSDT	oos (2022-01-01 → 2026-11-03)	0.64	0.09	+17.4%	-18.5%	-31.5%	-72.9%	15%	0.037	yes	no
LINKUSDT	oos (2022-01-01 → 2026-11-03)	0.55	0.29	+15.4%	-11.1%	-46.4%	-81.7%	15%	0.110	yes	no
DOGEUSDT	oos (2022-01-01 → 2026-11-03)	0.51	0.25	+13.7%	-15.5%	-55.5%	-85.2%	15%	0.137	yes	no
XLMUSDT	oos (2022-01-01 → 2026-11-03)	0.68	0.29	+25.8%	-9.7%	-45.7%	-75.7%	15%	0.056	yes	no
TRXUSDT	oos (2022-01-01 → 2026-11-03)	0.37	0.73	+5.7%	+34.9%	-32.6%	-51.1%	15%	0.348	no	no

Equity curves

Growth of 1 unit, log scale, fees included. Only days on which the rule is fully defined are counted.

Asset and period:

The same rule on every coin

Exploratory check of this rule on all coins since 2022-01-01. It is not part of the verdict above.

✓works (passed the chance check)
↑better than holding, could be luck
✗worse than holding
·not enough data
original coin of the hypothesis

Coin	✓	Result	Sharpe: rule / holding	CAGR	From
BTC	↑	better than holding, could be luck	0.53 / 0.46	+9% / +11%	2022-01-01
ETH	↑	better than holding, could be luck	0.50 / 0.19	+10% / -9%	2022-01-01
SOL	↑	better than holding, could be luck	0.42 / 0.33	+9% / -12%	2022-01-01
BNB	↑	better than holding, could be luck	1.07 / 0.39	+26% / +7%	2022-01-01
XRP	↑	better than holding, could be luck	1.10 / 0.50	+40% / +9%	2022-01-01
ADA	↑	better than holding, could be luck	0.72 / -0.03	+23% / -33%	2022-01-01
LTC	↑	better than holding, could be luck	0.64 / 0.09	+17% / -19%	2022-01-01
LINK	↑	better than holding, could be luck	0.55 / 0.29	+15% / -11%	2022-01-01
DOGE	↑	better than holding, could be luck	0.51 / 0.25	+14% / -16%	2022-01-01
XLM	↑	better than holding, could be luck	0.68 / 0.29	+26% / -10%	2022-01-01
TRX	✗	worse than holding	0.37 / 0.73	+6% / +35%	2022-01-01
EVER	↑	better than holding, could be luck	0.04 / -0.17	-12% / -69%	2022-03-19
GRAM	↑	better than holding, could be luck	0.18 / 0.12	-0% / -18%	2023-03-14

Why it might work

Large inflows into USDT/USDC may provide buying power for crypto; extreme growth could signal upcoming demand. The model drafted it for ETH only; widened to every coin (rule 7) on 2026-11-04, before any test.

Verdict history

2026-11-04: Weak (this engine, data to 2026-11-03)

Pre-registered specification

kind: timing_rule
rule:
  type: feature_vs_rolling_quantile
  feature: stablecoin_growth_7d
  q: 0.8
  long_when: above
  lookback: 730
  min_periods: 365
  lag: 1
mode: long_flat
fee: 0.001
universe:
- BTCUSDT
- ETHUSDT
- SOLUSDT
- BNBUSDT
- XRPUSDT
- ADAUSDT
- LTCUSDT
- LINKUSDT
- DOGEUSDT
- XLMUSDT
- TRXUSDT
periods:
- name: oos
  start: '2022-01-01'
significance:
  method: circular_shift
  n: 2000
  alpha: 0.0038
criterion:
  min_wins:
    oos: 1
  require_significance: true